NEVER BELIEVE ANYTHING . . . .

. . . until it has been officially denied.

No country wants to admit to having bird flu (H5N1). Let’s face it, it’s bad for business. Tourists could be scared off. Businesses and investors may look for safer venues. Often the agriculture minister, or other high officials, have vested interests in the poultry industry of their country. And it’s horribly expensive to try to contain.

It is far easier to deny the problem exists, to cover it up, and to blame other forces at work for poultry deaths. Human infections can be `buried’, along with the victims, as long as tests are not performed. And in third world countries, people die everyday of all sorts of diseases. Dengue, Chikagunda, Typhoid, Cholera, Malaria, Dysentery, and AIDS, to name just a few.

We’ve seen this pattern repeated again and again. In China, where the first human case was reported last November, we now believe they had human cases going back 3 years. In Nigeria, where the President of the Country has loudly proclaimed `they have no Bird Flu!” even in the face of dozens of reports of it across his country.

And of course, we strongly suspect other nations of hiding the problem.

One of those has been Thailand. An early victim of Bird Flu, where it claimed 22 lives as of last year, Thailand has for the past 8 months maintained they have eradicated the disease. They have celebrated their victory, and have assured one and all that the poultry was safe, tourists were safe, and that their surveillance system would detect any outbreaks.

There were, however, many skeptics. Bird Flu is not so easily contained. But we received constant assurances that Thailand was a model of success.

A month ago, reports of poultry deaths began filtering out of the country. And of human sickness. Denials were swift and vehement by the Thai government. We were treated to a long list of explanations for these die offs. Chicken Cholera, Newcastle’s Disease, heavy rains, you name it.

ABBF (Anything But Bird Flu).

A Thai Senator spoke out last week, and accused the government of a cover up. And yet, the denials continued.

Until yesterday.

The admission was finally made that H5N1 had been detected in poultry in Thailand. And today, the admission was made that a teenager has died of bird flu. We now also know that scores of people are on a `watch list’, suspected of being infected.

The international community has protested this cover up, and the Bangkok Post, their largest English speaking newspaper, has printed relatively scathing articles about the attempts to hide the problem. We are now beginning to see the tip of the iceberg.

Two neighboring countries, Laos and Vietnam, maintain they have no bird flu problem, yet rumors persist that they do. How long before we find out the truth there?

On the African continent, only Egypt has admitted to human H5 infections, yet a half dozen countries have had outbreaks in poultry. Once again, the suspicion is things are worse than advertised.

While many countries, thus far, have escaped H5N1 infection, it is wise to remember that government assurances aren’t worth a damn. These entities have agendas, and speaking the truth comes very low down their list of priorities.

While it may seem like this has been a quiet couple of months, remember. The virus never sleeps.