Ramifications: Pt. II
The assumption is, that during a pandemic, our health care systems will be overwhelmed. In a 1918 style scenario, fully 10% of the country could be ill at any one time. That’s 30 million flu victims. And we have roughly 1 million hospital beds. Worse, the H5N1 virus has, to date, killed 50% of those it has infected. This makes it 50 times deadlier than the 1918 strain.
While the hope is that this virus will trade lethality for transmissibility, right now, that’s only a hope.
What then becomes of those who normally take up hospital beds? On any given day, 95% of all hospital beds are already occupied. Roughly 80% of the 105,000 ventilators in the country are in use. Our surge capacity is measured in tens of thousands of patients, not millions.
And worse, small everyday accidents and injuries, without modern medical treatment, can quickly escalate into life threatening situations.
Stepping on a nail, or breaking a bone, or scalding yourself with hot coffee are all common emergencies seen everyday in an emergency room. You go and get a tetanus shot, x-rays and a cast, or have the burn debrided and silvadene ointment. People rarely die from these types of common injuries.
But in a pandemic, going to the hospital may be more than a little problematic. Many will be closed, due to lack of personnel. Others will be overrun with infectious patients, and going there could be trading a small injury for a life threatening exposure to the virus. Supply lines may be compromised, and that ointment, or tetanus shot, may simply not be available. Additionally, it may not be safe to travel the streets during a pandemic.
If, as some people assume, we see power outages during a pandemic wave, there will be more accidents. People attempting to use candles, or kerosene lanterns, or camp stoves, will create more burns. People unfamiliar with chain saws and axes may be out collecting firewood. And domestic violence, and even home invasions, may become more common.
Dealing with these, and myriad other problems, are the heart and soul of a number of flu forums. At PlanforPandemic.com, we’ve even discussed the ability to use maggots to clean wounds. Sounds terrible I know, but this therapy, along with the use of leeches, has recently been adopted by the modern medical community.
While I’m not advocating the raising of greenbottle flies, so that you can raise your own maggots, I would suggest that while there is time, everyone start preparing to handle their own medical emergencies. As long as hospitals and doctors are available, no one should play `doctor’. But if, during a pandemic, these services become unavailable, knowing how to treat wounds and illness can be a lifesaver.
There are first aid courses, EMT courses, and CERT training classes available. Take one, and do it now. Take a CPR course while you are at it, too. Get yourself a real first aid kit, not one of those pricey, but useless boxes sold for the trunk of your car or glove box. And think about getting a pneumovax II shot, and updating your tetanus shots.
Get a Boy Scout manual, and read the first aid instructions. Do some online research on first aid, and lay in the supplies you will need now.
If a pandemic never comes, this knowledge and these supplies will still be useful to you and your loved ones. Nothing is lost, but a little time, and a little money. But lives may be saved by your forethought.
Come a pandemic, I expect to be functioning as my neighborhood medic. There will be others. Retired or active EMT’s, nurses, and even doctors. Find out who in your neighborhood has medical training.
Better yet, become one of them.
