NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING
#190
The WHO (World Health Organization) yesterday announced that we are facing a flu vaccine crisis, should the avian flu become a pandemic strain.
Really?
I guess they’ve been reading my blog.
The standard line has been that it would take at least six months, from the time a pandemic broke out, to have a vaccine. And occasionally, they mention that even then, it would be in limited quantities. Those pronouncements have received repeated hearty horselaughs in this column.
The WHO now openly admits that the world’s production capacity for making a vaccine is several billion doses short of what would be needed. Furthermore, they say it will take 3 to 5 years, and an investment of between 3 and 10 billion dollars, to improve the system.
Hmmm. 3 to 5 years. Where have we heard those numbers before? Never mind.
Anyway, for those who would like to read it for themselves, here is the news article.
http://tinyurl.com/yfv4sh
Global plan against pandemic influenza unveiled with sense of emergency
GENEVA, Oct 23 (KUNA) -- The World Health Organization (WHO) announced Monday the Global Pandemic Influenza Action Plan which was described by WHO senior official David Heymann as an emergency plan because world is not yet prepared for an Influenza pandemic.
Another WHO senior official Dr. Marie-Paule Kieny noted that the industry is moving towards the feasibility of producing a vaccine for H5N1, known as the Avian flu.
However, she added that the development of such a licensed vaccine will not take place before one year.
She stressed that the target of the Action Plan is to provide vaccines for the whole world population, however this is not an achievable target now, but the Plan must meet the vaccination at least 20 percent of the more than six billion people on earth, which means the need for 20 percent of 12 billion dozes.
Dr. Kieny noted that if the industry works 24 over 24, seven days a week, three shifts per day, 500 million dozes could be produced in the short term in addition to another 280 million dozes by 2009.
She added that currently the world is short of several billion doses of the amount of pandemic influenza vaccine needed to protect the global population and that in three to five years the world could be prepared with the adequate vaccines to save many lives in case of a pandemic.
So there you have it. The Happy Talk about vaccines has a somber side to it.
Of course, all is not lost. We just have to hope the H5N1 virus is willing to wait another 5 years before acquiring the ability to transmit efficiently.
And that doesn't sound like much to ask. But then, neither did a having a vaccine in 6 months.
