The Pandemic Rumor Mill
#193


If you visit the flubie forums (which I heartily recommend), it won’t take long for you to notice that rumors and supposition abound. Some forums do a better job of corralling these threads than others, often relegating them to `off topic’ or `fringe’ areas, but they are immensely popular. Particularly when the avian flu news is slow.


If there’s an outbreak of any `flu-like illness’, anywhere in the world, people jump on it as if it is a harbinger of the pandemic. Dengue, Chickungunya, even polio outbreaks somewhere in the world immediately bring the tin foil hat crowd into the conversation, because . . . well it could be Avian Flu.


And, of course, it could. But it isn’t likely.


Now, I love a good conspiracy theory. I enjoyed the X-files. And my trust in the government’s ability to do the right thing, unless it’s purely accidental, is almost non-existent. But personally, I find most of these threads to be counter-productive.


Not because they aren’t interesting. They can be. But because they distract us from what we really should be doing. Preparing for the pandemic.


The world is a big place, filled with nasty pathogens. Outbreaks of hemorrhagic diseases like Dengue II, Ebola, and the Marburg virus happen with some regularity. And as far as influenza-like viruses, there are outbreaks going on somewhere in the world all the time. With the seasonal flu upon us, if we raise the alert every time an outbreak of flu is reported, we will wear ourselves into a frazzle in short order.


There is certainly value in keeping our collective antennae tuned to what is going on around us. Following the outbreaks of diseases, particularly those with a real potential to spread, or go pandemic, is a worthy enterprise. But we need to be careful not to over-react to these reports.


The perception is, these outbreaks are coming with greater frequency. Perhaps they are. We live in an increasingly crowded world, and so more disease is to be expected. But we are also paying closer attention. A die off of chickens, pigs, or humans in Outer Mongolia 20 years ago would have scarcely been noticed. Today, with the Internet, and thousands of people watching for anything out of the ordinary, these events are magnified in importance.


The truth is, we don’t have a baseline. We don’t know how common these outbreaks really are. Perhaps we are seeing a spike, or perhaps we are simply noticing them for the first time.


Another source of rumors, and speculation, come from posters to these forums. On the Internet, it is easy to pretend to be anything you want. If you wish to pass yourself off as an expert, and can write well enough, people will believe you really are an expert. And sadly, a certain amount of that goes on.


We are fortunate that there are some experts who do post to these forums. Doctors and scientists, plus a large number of well-informed laypeople, some of who could give a few doctors a run for their money.


But there are also purveyors of nonsense out there, posters who are trying to build a reputation, or sell snake oil cures, or are simply having a good joke on the readers of the forums. I’ve seen people try to pass themselves off as doctors, or scientists, when they are no more of a research scientist than I am.


Often, you will read alarming posts by someone who claims to have met someone `who really knows’ what’s going on. Or has heard something ominous from a friend of a friend. There is no way to verify the veracity of these posts, and so they have little but entertainment value.


If you enjoy reading the conspiracy threads, or find value in following every report of an outbreak of flu somewhere in the world, by all means, indulge yourself. But you should expect that most of these stories will amount to nothing.


So to my readers I would caution that you take everything you read (yes, even here on my blog) with a large grain of salt. That you apply critical thinking to anything you read. And that you assume that not everyone is who or what they claim to be.


Caveat Lector.


If H5N1 finally develops the ability to go pandemic, I expect it will be fairly obvious early on. Hospitals somewhere in the world will be quickly overrun. Patients will be dieing at an alarming rate. And there will be a call for help: ventilators, antivirals, antibiotics, and doctors. I would expect to see a military response, with quarantines, and road closures. I think the signs will be unmistakable.


Of course, that’s just my opinion.


Worth no more, or less, than the next guy’s.