Fear of Trying

# 229


While most of the world is blissfully ignorant of the havoc a pandemic might bring, among flubies, there are two distinct camps when it comes to dealing a viral onslaught.


There are many who believe that the only sensible thing is to hunker down, shut themselves off from the outside world to avoid exposure, and wait it out. And then there are those who believe that should this viral invader strike our shores; we need to work together as a community to reduce its impact.


I fall solidly into the second group. Regrettably, I find it is a decidedly unpopular position.


While the H5N1 bird flu virus has yet to mutate to a pandemic strain, those who have contracted it have died at an alarming rate. Should it retain this CFR (Case fatality ratio), the death toll would be horrendous, and the impact on our civilization would be enormous. Even if the CFR should moderate appreciably, authorities paint a bleak picture, and have warned of serious breakdowns in supply chains, medical care, and the economy.


It is no wonder then that among flubies; the survivalist mentality runs high. The Federal government has advised the public to stockpile food, water, and medicines, and to prepare to shelter-in-place for several weeks. Some local authorities have extended that advice to months.


I know of many flubies who have stockpiled six months or a year’s worth of supplies, and who intend to lock themselves down in their homes, and plan avoid all outside contact for the duration. Many suggest that if everyone would simply stay home, the pandemic would die out for lack of a susceptible host.


While I understand the visceral reaction, I see serious flaws in their logic.


The last great pandemic lasted 18 months, and while past performance is no guarantee of future results, the next pandemic could go on as long, or longer. Very few people have the resources to prepare for 12 months or longer, and over the past year, attempts by the federal government to get all Americans to stockpile even 2-weeks of supplies has been less than successful.


Now I certainly support the idea of stockpiling, but not so that we can all hide in our homes with a shotgun across our laps, but so that we can be prepared to deal with a crisis without worrying where our next meal will come from.


Should a pandemic come, we need to be thinking as a community, not as lone wolf survivalists. If everyone hunkers down, who will keep the lights on? Who will provide medical care, or maintain law and order on the streets? Who will harvest, process, and deliver the food?


Like it or not, we will all have to accept the idea that during a pandemic, there will be no place to hide. Rambo fantasies aside, our best chances for personal survival resides with maintaining the infrastructure and preserving our communities.


We can certainly take prudent steps, like avoiding crowds, and wearing masks and gloves when around potentially infected individuals, but we can’t afford to have everyone abandon their jobs and abdicate their responsibilities to their communities. The collateral damage from such a reaction would likely claim more lives than the virus.


Imagine a world where everyone stayed home for months at a time: Doctors, nurses, cops, firefighters, truckers, mortuary workers, farm workers, public works and utility workers, among others. The lights would go out, the sewers would overflow, the water coming from our taps would be contaminated, hospitals would close, and grocery store shelves would quickly empty and remain barren. Millions of bodies would pile up, and go unburied. The streets would be filled with starving, desperate people.


Anarchy would prevail.


Isolating ourselves, long-term, is simply an unworkable solution. Many may try it, but few will succeed.


The alternative, of course, is to work together, as neighbors, and as members of the larger community, to prevent these occurrences. Yes, it will involve personal risk. You might contract the virus, and you might even die.


But given the alternatives, do we really have a choice?


If we allow our fears to override our common sense, we will exacerbate the effects of an avian flu pandemic. We will visit upon ourselves horrors that go beyond the effects of the virus.


It is, admittedly, a tough sell, trying to convince people of the futility of long term isolation. The idea has great appeal, despite its impracticality. We all have strong survival instincts, and risking our lives to help our neighbors, often people we don’t even know, sounds counterintuitive.


But in the long run, we increase our own odds of survival, and that of our families, if we do what we can to help one another in a crisis. We need to keep the lights on, the water flowing, food and medicines delivered, and the streets safe.


We may not like it, but then, there’s not much of anything to like about a pandemic.