#485
When you read a news item, or an official governmental pronouncement on a bird flu outbreak, it's always good to note the time. As we saw in the UK, the story changes by the hour. Apparently, this is happening in Russia, too.
Yesterday, ITAR-TASS was reporting the bird flu outbreak around Moscow had been contained, and no more outbreaks were expected.
Spread of bird flu in Moscow region stopped - official
20.02.2007, 14.30
MOSCOW, February 20 (Itar-Tass) -- The spread of the bird flu virus H5N1 in the Moscow Region has been stopped, the chief of the federal veterinary and phyto-sanitary watchdog’s department for Moscow and the Moscow Region, Alexei Volkov has said. He believes that the seventh bird flu trouble spot identified in the Ramenskoye district on Tuesday morning will be the last one.
“Currently there are no prerequisites for the infection’s further spread,” he told a news conference.
Volkov said that the measures veterinary services were taking to localize trouble sports and disposing of the dead birds were adequate.
“There is no need for culling all poultry in the Moscow Region,” he said.
An optimistic appraisal of the situation, and one that most flu observers would take with a large grain of salt. Fast forward a few hours, and we get this report from the AP.
Russia's veterinary service predicts more H5N1 bird flu cases in fowl around Moscow
The Associated Press
Published: February 21, 2007
MOSCOW: Russian authorities expect new outbreaks of the H5N1 strain of bird flu in the Moscow region and the surrounding provinces, the veterinary service said Wednesday in a statement sent to other governments.
The virus, which began killing domestic birds in the Moscow suburbs on Feb 9, has been traced to a single animal market just outside Moscow.
Given the large numbers of birds that had been sold at the market, the authorities "expect new outbreaks in the Moscow region" and the surrounding provinces in western Russia, according to the statement sent by the federal veterinary service to the European Union, the United States and other nations.
The veterinary service said the outbreak was contained at one private farm at each location affected. "Quick measures have allowed to contain the virus spread," it said. The service said poultry at locations affected by the outbreak had been culled and several areas had been put under quarantine.
The cynic in me suspects they've discovered more sick or dying birds somewhere and are trying to get ahead of the testing results. (see update) Or perhaps there's simply someone in the veterinary service with some common sense.
Either way, the story has changed. Yesterday, it was all over. Today, it is more to come.
Why officials feel compelled to announce the `all clear' prematurely, when it so very often leaves them looking incompetent, is beyond me. But it seems to be a universal problem, not one restricted to the Russians.
This morning, Russian officials are denying reports of a human infection. They are saying a patient, admitted to the infectious disease ward of a local hospital, has rhinitis or common cold.
Let's hope they don't end up having to retract that story as well.
UPDATE: 0730 hrs EDT Weds Feb 21st.
Well, I supposed it didn't require a Kreskin to figure this one out. Reuters is now reporting new outbreaks of suspected bird flu in birds in Russia.
Russia finds bird flu in new region, suspects more
Wed 21 Feb 2007 12:02:54 GMT
By Aleksandras Budrys
MOSCOW, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Russia confirmed another outbreak of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu, potentially dangerous to humans, on a farm in a southern region on Wednesday and suspects two more outbreaks on farms near Moscow.
Alexei Alexeyenko, spokesman for animal and plant health watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor, said the H5N1 strain was identified in the republic of Adygeya, a region in the North Caucasus.
Bird deaths also have been registered at farms in Dmitrov district, part of Moscow region, and Borovsk district in the Kaluga region, which borders the Moscow region to the south.
Alexeyenko said he expected confirmation of the presence of the virus in these regions within the next two days.
"It looks like it's H5N1 again, as the pattern appears to be the same as in the previous cases," he said.
Obviously, yesterday's reports of the demise of this outbreak, were premature. And now, poultry deaths are being reported in areas far removed from Moscow.
