# 576
One of the problems I've addressed in this blog repeatedly has been the lack of vaccine production worldwide. We currently have the global capacity to produce enough vaccine for perhaps, 400 million people a year.
That's it.
Eleven western countries produce 95% of the world's vaccines. They are: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States of America.
Enough for most of the European Union. Or enough for the United States and Canada. But not enough for both. And as far as for the rest of the world . . . .
Well, they can do the math.
Obviously, no country or continent is going to have enough vaccine should a pandemic occur. No one. Not the United States, certainly. We have far less manufacturing capacity than Europe and will be standing in line for vaccine much like the rest of the world. Our `strategic stockpile' will cover less than 2% of our population, and that is of a poorly matched, older vaccine that may not even be effective.
Understandably, many nations view this situation as intolerable. Indonesia is playing a high stakes game withholding viral samples in a bid to get assurances that they will receive an affordable vaccine. But they aren't alone.
Thailand's representative at the WHO, Dr. Suwit Wibulpolprasert, has had some harsh words in the past.
“We are sending our virus (samples) to the rich countries to produce antivirals and vaccines. And when the pandemic occurs, they survive and we die”
“We are not opposing the sharing of information and virus, but on the condition that every country will have equal opportunity to get access to vaccine and antivirals if such a pandemic occurs.”
Last January, at a WHO meeting, Dr. Wibulpolprasert ominously suggested that western nationals might be held hostage during a pandemic outbreak until Thailand received their share of any vaccine.
This from the Wall Street Journal.
Time for a Thai Apology
March 13, 2007
It turns out we're not the only ones concerned about Thailand's radical statements in the halls of the World Health Organization. The U.S. government has now lodged a formal protest with Bangkok, requesting an apology for Dr. Suwit Wibulpolprasert's call to seize foreign nationals in the event of an influenza outbreak. The good doctor proposed holding Western tourists hostage until Bangkok received needed flu vaccines.
Dr. Suwit's comments at the WHO's January executive board meeting in Geneva "appear to contravene the spirit and provisions of the revised International Health Regulations," Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt wrote in a letter dated March 7, referring to the WHO's rules on how countries cooperate to curb the international spread of diseases. "Voicing support for these counterproductive policies at a multilateral, intergovernmental meeting...can impair global influenza preparedness efforts."
Whether this was a serious threat, or simply an expression of frustration is hard to know. But it illustrates how difficult the situation will become should a pandemic break out.
With a very limited supply of vaccine, controlled by a handful of relatively rich western nations, the potential for geopolitical flashpoints is great.
A pandemic could persist for months, some say for two years or longer. How this will play out on the global stage is unknown. But if Thailand could consider taking western hostages in order to leverage vaccine supplies, might other countries take similar actions?
Is it conceivable that oil producing nations might hold up exports until they received a vaccine? To them, given the circumstances, it could be viewed as a desperate, but reasonable course of action. An oil embargo would have a devastating effect and would severely crimp many nation's abilities to fight a pandemic.
Will vaccine manufacturing countries send any vaccine they desperately need to other countries, or will they wait until their own populations have been inoculated? Promises made now, when people aren't dying by the millions, may not be worth much when a pandemic strikes.
Will developing nations view the virus and the lack of a vaccine as a form of passive genocide? In some radical Arabic newspapers, words to that effect have already been printed.
These are questions that aren't often being talked about openly.
The only solution is to begin, today, to set up vaccine manufacturing facilities around the world that will provide a pandemic vaccine to developing nations at cost. It is a process that would take years to accomplish, and we must hope that any pandemic holds off that long, but we dare not wait.
A pandemic isn't just a public health crisis. It will have political, economic, and social consequences, and it has the potential to affect the world in ways we've scarcely considered.
