# 995
The fourth update to the United State's Pandemic preparedness effort included new numbers on the amount of vaccine, antivirals, and PPE's stockpiled. At first glance, the quantities look impressive.
But that doesn't mean they've got you covered.
According to this report, we've got 12 million doses of pre-pandemic vaccine stockpiled. This is based on a Vietnamese Clade I virus, and there are serious doubts as to how effective it might be against the current, or future incarnations of the H5N1 virus.
Since this vaccine would require two shots to hopefully confer immunity, we have enough to inoculate 6 million people. Enough, perhaps, for some essential workers during the wave of a pandemic.
Additional vaccine won't be available until at least six months into a pandemic, and then, only in limited quantities.
The sobering reality is most Americans, and indeed most of the citizens of the world, will probably have to go through a pandemic without a vaccine.
The HHS (Health & Human Services) has stated their goal is to have enough antivirals on hand to treat 81 million people. Roughly 1/4th of the population. Of course, that goal isn't expected to be met until sometime in late 2008.
The idea is that a pandemic may only affect 25% of the population. Of course, that's a guess. No one knows what the attack rate will be. It could be less, it could be a lot more.
However, we are currently far below that goal. The stockpile currently has 36 million courses of Tamiflu on hand. That's a 10-pill course, which is looking less and less like it will be an effective dose.
In places like Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, and Turkey, where doctors are actually treating H5N1 patients, it is not unusual for patients to receive more than the standard 2 pills a day for 5 days treatment. There are clinical trials planned this year to test double the dose (4 pills a day) for double the duration (10 days) to see if that improves patient outcomes.
So, those 36 million treatment courses could, in actuality, end up being enough to treat 9 million patients.
The bottom line is, as valuable as the stockpiled antivirals are, they are unlikely to be sufficient to handle a severe pandemic.
There are also real questions as to the ability of the government to distribute antivirals during a crisis. The Federal government believes it can move large quantities of these supplies to any area of the country within 12 hours, but then it will be up to State and local officials to move them down the pipeline and into the hands of patients.
To be effective, antivirals must be administered early. Within the first 12 to 24 hours of infection is preferable. Exactly how that will happen has not been adequately explained.
But I'm sure they are working on it.
We are also told that our stockpile has 104 million N95 respirators, and 52 million surgical masks. Again, impressive sounding numbers. But woefully inadequate for a nation of 300 million people.
During a pandemic these supplies will come in very handy, but they will certainly not be widely distributed to the public. They will be used by essential workers. And even then, they won't last long.
If there are 10 million essential workers in this country (probably a very low figure), then the 104 million N95 masks would run out in a week. And that assumes they can get by with only 2 a day.
The bottom line is, anyone who wants to be protected by masks, gloves, or even antivirals during a pandemic had better see to it they have their own supplies. What the government has stockpiled will be helpful, but it won't be adequate to cover the nation.
In fairness, it would be impossible to stockpile enough supplies for the entire nation. A pandemic could last a year, perhaps two. The quantity of masks and gloves alone would be staggering.
Today, before a pandemic erupts, it is still possible to buy these supplies relatively cheaply. N95 masks can be had for less than $1.00 each. Surgical masks, certainly less effective but better than nothing, can be had for about a nickel apiece. Latex or vinyl gloves, about 10 cents a pair.
While no one can say how effective masks and gloves will be during a pandemic, they will certainly provide some protection. Healthcare workers will demand them, and for good reason. The CDC has admitted that citizens may wish to have some on hand. A lukewarm endorsement at best, but one that recognizes there is some value to having these protective items.
If you want these items for you, or your family, or if you are an employer looking for ways to keep your employees safer while on the job, your best best is to obtain them now while the prices are low and these items are in generous supply. Once a pandemic erupts, getting them will not only be more expensive, it may prove impossible.
The strategic stockpile is a good thing, and it is improving with time. It will undoubtedly save lives. None of this is to knock the efforts by the HHS to stockpile masks and medicines. But it is a reality check. The stockpile won't cover everyone's needs.
It was never intended to do so.
The reality is that during a pandemic we will all have to see to our own needs. The government's ability to help individual citizens will be extremely limited. By preparing now, with adequate food, water, medicines, and other supplies, we can avoid a good deal of misery for ourselves and our loved ones.
But that only works if you actually prepare in advance.
