# 1544
One can scarcely blame the West Bengal government for trying to find a silver lining to the unseasonal black rains clouds that have had them socked in and are disrupting their culling efforts.
After all, the government would like to announce each day that they are making progress, and that's hard to do when cullers can't do their job.
First the article, from UPI, and then some discussion.
Rains offer hope for bird virus outbreak
Published: Jan. 26, 2008 at 6:28 PM
MURSHIDABAD, India, Jan. 26 (UPI) -- An outbreak of avian flu in Murchidabad, India, may have been temporarily restrained thanks to a series of unseasonal rains.
Animal Resources Development Minister Anisur Rehman said that while the increased rainfall has prevented the culling of potentially infected animals, the unseasonal weather may be the key to limiting the spread of the potentially deadly virus, the Press Trust of India reported Saturday.
"The culling operation is being affected in some places due to rains. But scientists say that the rains also prevent spread of the virus," Rehman said.
The bird flu virus has been found in 11 districts of the Indian state of West Bengal to date and medical teams have been working to prevent it from spreading.
The Press Trust reported that in addition to the rains, government officials have blamed the delays in culling the poultry flocks on public resistance.
© 2008 United Press International. All Rights Reserved.
Perhaps there is something to the notion that rain may inhibit the transmission of the virus in some cases. I'm aware of no scientific study on the matter, but it makes sense that certain modes of transmission might be interrupted by the rain.
Unfortunately, I can see instances where rain might actually help spread the virus as well.
On the `rain is good news' front, one could argue that dust, particularly from desiccated infected chicken droppings, virus particles, and even contaminated feathers are probably knocked out of the air by the rain.
Since India apparently subscribes to the notion that the `virus blew in on the wind from Bangladesh', a claim for which no scientific evidence has been presented, I suppose they might consider the virus `carried by the wind' to be a major factor.
How important that mode of transmission really is is unknown.
And since cullers can't cull, the virus can't easily infect the cullers. And infected cullers can't infect others. Perhaps not what they are thinking, but certainly a valid point.
If there are any other upsides, I'd love to hear them. Sadly, this article doesn't give any examples behind their thinking.
The downside is - the virus reportedly survives best when damp - as in cool water, moist chicken feces, mud, or wet straw or hay. So while the virus may not be floating about in the air outside, it certainly could be sticking to boots, bare feet, and truck tires.
Additionally, rain moves most people indoors. And if there are any humans infected with bird flu, they are likely inside and in close quarters with others. The risk of transmission may go up in that case.
Again, how much of a factor this is in the transmission of this virus isn't known.
The fact is, there is a lot we don't know about how this virus is transmitted. So it's pretty hard to back up a theory like the one proposed.
Of course this article uses phrases like "may have been temporarily restrained " and "may be the key to limiting the spread".
Or it may not.
File this one under wishful thinking. Something to say when it's been raining for three days, you're falling behind schedule, and you don't have any good news to report.
