# 1761
An interesting article out of Vietnam that suggests the situation in Vietnam may be more serious than previously reported.
I say `may' and `suggests' because this is only one newspaper account, and it runs contrary to others we've seen. Frankly, until we see some confirmation of this story from another source, I tend to be a bit skeptical.
Officially, Vietnam has reported 4 human infections from the bird flu virus this year, resulting in four deaths. There have been mentions in some newspaper articles of `other suspected cases', but no numbers were ever given and no follow up reports were printed.
Today we get an article from the Thanh Nien Daily that describes a more serious situation, with two very interesting passages:
The Central Hygiene Epidemic Institute reported 48 cases of acute pneumonia suspected of stemming from avian influenza this year, including four deaths.
We also get this quote from the Ministry of Health, “severe bird flu outbreaks are occurring more often and an increasing amount of deaths are reported from infected people.”
If Vietnam really has seen 48 cases of avian flu this year, then that would be a pretty big story.
Unfortunately, this report doesn't tell us if any of these `suspect cases' actually tested positive for the virus.
A technicality, I know. But an important one. Hot zone countries see many `suspect cases', but most eventually prove to be negative.
Vietnam is pretty sophisticated when it comes to dealing with bird flu; they've had lots of practice. I doubt that 48 human cases could linger long in diagnostic limbo.
Someone obviously knows the truth here. I have to believe it would be difficult to hide nearly 50 cases of avian flu, even in Vietnam.
We also don't know the fate of these `suspect cases'. How many survived? How many are still hospitalized? Are any of these cases part of a cluster?
Is there really any reason to suspect these cases are avian flu related? Or is this simply a case of newspaper hyperbole?
Too many questions, too few answers. Quite frankly, my comfort level with this report is pretty low.
For now, until we can get some confirmation of these reports, I'm filing this one under `Interesting but Unsubstantiated'.
As always, Caveat Lector.
Vietnam runs short on Tamiflu as avian influenza spreads
The stock of Tamiflu at Vietnam’s leading institute for treating bird flu is dated while the epidemic is growing increasingly out-of-control, the institute’s deputy director said at a meeting Wednesday.
Nguyen Hong Ha from the National Institute of Infectious and Tropical Diseases said the stock, which had been donated by Taiwan in 2005, was expired not only at the institute but also in several provinces such as Hai Duong and Phu Tho.
Northern provinces of Hai Duong and Phu Tho where bird flu cases have been reported recently are also running low on the medicine which serves as the sole effective treatment for human cases of avian influenza.
The Ministry of Health said it was searching for new supplies and would use medicine produced by Vietnam (Osetavimin) as a temporary replacement in the interim.
Hien said a shortage of Tamiflu would be disastrous for Vietnam, adding that “severe bird flu outbreaks are occurring more often and an increasing amount of deaths are reported from infected people.”
The total number of H5N1 human casualties in Vietnam, with 105 cases in all, is high among the list of affected countries in the world.
The Central Hygiene Epidemic Institute reported 48 cases of acute pneumonia suspected of stemming from avian influenza this year, including four deaths, bringing the total number of deaths from the virus in Vietnam to 51 since 2003 – the second highest figure after Indonesia.
The bird flu epidemic has hit nine provinces so far this year, half of which are in the north including Quang Ninh, Ninh Binh, Phu Tho, Ha Nam, and Thai Nguyen.
Tra Vinh and Vinh Long southern provinces along with Quang Binh and Quang Nam central provinces are also plagued.
In related news, Zuellig Pharma Vietnam (ZPV) has donated a stock of Tamiflu costing over VND120 million (US$7,500) to a few hospitals around the country.
