# 2150
It seems that every few weeks we are treated to breathless reporting about the latest scientific advance that will hopefully prevent the next influenza pandemic.
A couple of examples this week include:
Scientists Report Progress Toward Bird Flu 'Cure'
ConsumerAffairs.Com 22:43 16-Jul-08
The Hindu - Todays Headlines 19:54 16-Jul-08
While I'm a great advocate of scientific research, and certainly am interested in the latest advances, I take a less than charitable view of how many of these stories are reported.
Particularly when I see the word `cure' prominently featured in the headlines.
This particular story is about the mapping of the avian flu virus's structure, which may someday lead to the creation of new drugs (antivirals) to combat it.
This appears to be an important advance. I have no quibble with the research.
It is the coverage that concerns me.
Whenever a new discovery is made, or a new drug or vaccine is tested, we are invariably assured that it `could lead to new drugs or therapies', or that it `could prevent the next pandemic'.
Not to diminish the value of any of this research, but the operative word here is `could'.
Rarely do these articles explain that any new designer drugs are likely years away from human testing. That their safety and efficacy must be established before they can be unleashed on the public.
And rarely are the logistics of delivering a `miracle cure' to nearly 7 billion inhabitants of this planet discussed.
These stories often rely on `forward-looking statements', or projections of future events based on `expectations', `hopes', `beliefs', or `estimates' that are not necessarily guaranteed to pan out.
When you see words like -
- could
- believe
- someday
- estimate
- anticipate
- plan
- predict
- may
- hope
- can
- will
- should
- expect
- intend
- is designed to
- with the intent
- potential
- these are signals that what you are reading isn't necessarily based on cold-hard reality or even existing technology, but rather on speculation about the future.
Informed speculation sometimes, but speculation nonetheless.
Often these stories come from press releases, whose intent is to attract investors, government grants, or notoriety for a researcher, laboratory, or university.
Not necessarily bad things, of course, but certainly relevant when analyzing the probative value of a story.
Some of these discoveries may, someday, lead us to the next antiviral or vaccine. They may, indeed, help save lives in some future pandemic.
But we need to be very careful when reading these stories, else we risk deluding ourselves that a miracle `cure' is just around the corner.
