# 2303
The UK uses a higher attack rate assumption (50%) than most other countries, but retains the relatively low (4%) hospitalization rate, and fatality rate of (2.5%).
In truth, nobody knows what the next pandemic will bring.
Given that a fatality rate of 2.5% is anticipated, I find it hard to buy into the `4% may require hospital admission' assumption.
Now, if the statement read `only 4% are likely to receive hospital treatment', I might believe it. A subtle, but important, difference.
In any event, there is no doubt that GPs, and all other healthcare providers, will be inundated during a pandemic.
While the problems facing GPs seem pretty evident, realistic solutions are harder to find.
This from Pulsetoday.co.uk
GPs face deluge if flu pandemic hits
16 Sep 08
GPs could be deluged with tens of thousands of appointments according to dire Department of Health predictions of the impact of an outbreak of pandemic flu.
A document published by the DH’s pandemic influenza preparedness team sets out guidance on how GPs and other healthcare professional can manage the potentially huge increase in patients during a flu pandemic.
The document warns that an outbreak of ‘pandemic influenza will be a widespread, rising-tide phenomenon rapidly threatening to overwhelm health services in the UK.’
The model predicts that as many as half of the population may show clinical symptoms of influenza’ over the course of a pandemic.
This could result in the total appointments and admissions for influenza-like illness rocketing from around one million in a ‘normal’ season up to 30 millions.
Of those developing symptoms, 4% may require hospital admission and up to 28.5% will require assessment and treatment by a healthcare professional – with GPs set to be thrust into the frontline.
Statistical modelling shows that an extra 14,250 GP consultations would be needed for per 100,000 of the population, assuming 50% of the population are infected, at a rate of 3,135 per week.
‘This is the reasonable worse case scenario that local health planners should plan for’, the report states.
Surprisingly, while UK government reports continue to paint a dire picture of what a pandemic could bring to Britain, there is very little preparedness advice offered to the peoples of the UK.
It has been stated in the past that, as much as possible, the UK government would like to promote a `business as usual' atmosphere during a pandemic.
This from an article that appeared in The TimesOnline after the 2007 Winter Willow exercise, outlining the key points of the UK's pandemic plan.
Crisis targets
—The aim is to keep the nation open for business
—International flights will not be banned, although airline companies must prevent the sick from travelling
—There are to be no road blocks outside cities
—Ministers do not want armed troops on the streets or afflicted communities treated like 17th century plague villages
—Police will guard antiviral drug supplies and vaccines
—Employers are to stagger working hours so that a reduced public transport system will be able to cope
—Healthy people are expected to go to work. An absenteeism rate of 15-30 per cent is expected in each business including MPs and peers in Parliament, which itself will not close
An ideal situation, perhaps. But it simply may not be possible.
In the United States, citizens are urged to stockpile at least 2-weeks worth of food, water, and emergency supplies, and to obtain a month's extra supply of essential prescription drugs.
Not so in the UK.
Of course, the recommendations here in the United States don't seem to be swaying very many people.
But at least here, when millions of people are queued up in relief lines, we can say `We told you so'.
