Friday, October 10, 2008

It's Hard To Focus On The Creek Rising When Your House Is On Fire

 

 

# 2375

 

 

 

One of the troubling side-effects of the current economic crisis sweeping the world is that our attention, and our resources, may be diverted from public health issues.   

 

 

Indonesia, which has the highest incidence of H5N1 cases in the world, and arguably is one of the more likely places where a pandemic might erupt, is being particularly hard hit by this economic meltdown.   

 

 

Indonesia: Stock Trading Frozen To Prevent Panic

 

2008-10-10 12:20

JAKARTA, INDONESIA: Indonesian stock trading was frozen indefinitely Friday (10 Oct) to "avoid deeper panic" as global markets plunged over concerns stemming from the U.S. financial crisis, the bourse president said.

 

A suspension was imposed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange on Wednesday in response to sudden, steep loses, but authorities had planned to resume trading Friday morning.

 

The last-minute reversal came just minutes before the scheduled reopening in Jakarta as Asian stocks tumbled again in response to a whopping 7.3% decline of the Dow Jones Industrials Average. In Tokyo, Japan's main index sank more than 10% Friday morning.

 

"The situation is not yet conducive. This is to prevent deeper panic," bourse President Erry Firmansyah told The Associated Press. "It will be closed indefinitely while we will continue to monitor."

 

Heavy selling by foreign investors drove down the benchmark JSX index 21% this week and it is down 47% this year, making it one of the worst performers in Asia.

 

Indonesia isn't alone. A number of bourses, or stock markets, around the world have halted trading overnight.  

 

 

Russian markets suspended after big selloffs

The Associated Press

Published: October 10, 2008

MOSCOW: Russian stock exchanges postponed trading Friday after massive sell offs on Wall Street and Asian markets.

 

Representatives of the MICEX and RTS exchanges said they suspended regular trading until further notice under orders from financial regulators. Limited trading and repo auctions were allowed.

 

 

I won't bore my readers with any of my pseudo-economic theories, since I am basically a Luddite when it comes to financial matters.   As I hold the quaint but obviously outmoded opinion that one should wait until they can afford something before they buy it (I make exceptions for a home mortgage), I am unqualified to speak on this issue.

 

 

But it doesn't take Keynesian economic intellect to realize that with literally trillions of dollars of losses, and the need for trillions of dollars of governmental bailouts, some global priorities are likely to be rearranged. 

 

And public health budgets, along with animal health surveillance budgets, are likely to be among those impacted.

 

As an advocate for public health issues, I obviously think this is penny wise but pound foolish.  

 

As traumatic as the financial upheavals these past few weeks have been, they would pale in comparison to what a pandemic would deliver.  

 

While bird flu certainly has our attention right now, it may not be the source of the next global health crisis.  There are many other pathogenic threats out there, including some we haven't identified yet.

 

 

Ominously, at a time when surveillance efforts are likely to be negatively impacted by financial concerns, we are also seeing a degradation in transparency over public health threats by some governments around the world.  

 

The track record of China in this regard has never been good, but in the wake of the SARS debacle there were assurances that China would be more open about their public health problems.   The recent delays (months, apparently) in admitting their tainted milk scandal once again raise questions about just how open they are being about things like avian flu.

 

And of course, Indonesia has publicly announced their intention not to reveal bird flu cases in `real time', but to provide summaries every few months.  

 

Right now, newshounds are following several vague reports of `suspected human infections' from bird flu in Indonesia, but given the current policy, it may be months before we learn their `official' status.   For whatever that might be worth.

 

Other nations may also be quietly following suit. 

 

After all, Indonesia has flouted the rules and gotten away with it, why not do the same?   It's better for any nation's economy not to talk about bird flu.   And in today's economic climate, that is a pretty strong incentive.

 

In short, our attention is focused on more pressing economic matters, our budgets are strained and funds are likely to be diverted from public health and surveillance, and the global level of transparency and reporting on health threats is dropping.

 

Sadly, what we have is a perfect setup to be blind-sided by an emerging infectious disease.  

 

Good enough reason to take measures to prepare now, while you can.  

 

I know it's tough, when our attention is diverted by the dramatic news of the day.  But now is the time to prepare, not after a threat upon us.

 

The HHS's pandemicflu.gov website is filled with good, solid, preparedness information that would serve you, your family, and your business in a disaster like a pandemic.   Pandemic preparations would also prepare you for just about any other crisis, including earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorist attacks.

 

GetPandemicReady.Org builds on the federal government's preparedness information, giving the visitor dozens of detailed preparedness documents, all of them illustrated and easy to read and follow.

 

Ready.gov is another government site that encourages all families, and businesses, to prepare for the unexpected.    

 

The government wants all Americans to be prepared.  They consider it a vital part of our national security.   Their problem has been getting people to listen - before a disaster strikes.

 

Whatever comes down the pike, be it a pandemic, a hurricane, or even a recession . . . being prepared, having a full pantry, and building a support network among your friends and neighbors is the best possible insurance you can have in uncertain times.

 

No, we can't change the direction from which the wind blows.

 

But we can adjust our sails.