Tuesday, April 28, 2009

A Tale Of Two Cities

 

 

# 3077

 

 

NPI’s are Non Pharmaceutical Interventions; things that people can do to slow the spread of a virus other than taking antivirals or having a vaccine.

 

Trust me. 

 

You’re going to hear a lot about NPI’s over the next few weeks and months.  

 

Through the use of these NPI's it is hoped that the rate of transmission, and the number of people simultaneously sickened, can be dramatically cut during a pandemic.

 

During the 1918 Pandemic, some cities instituted strict public health ordinances.   They closed schools, movie houses, pool rooms, restaurants . . even churches.    

 

Those cities that took these measures generally saw much lower levels of death and illness.

 

 

 

The chart above, taken from the PNAS journal article entitled Public Health Interventions and Pandemic Intensity During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic , shows the excess mortality in two American cities.

 

The tall spike represents Philadelphia, while the lower curve represents St. Louis.

 

Scientists believe the startling difference in attack rates, and mortality, in these two cities can be explained by the way each city dealt with the outbreak.

 

In St. Louis, the Health Department closed public venues such as schools, theatres and churches very early in the outbreak, while Philadelphia did not.

 

Pretty convincing evidence that these steps can help reduce morbidity and mortality.   And when layered on top of one another, they can make a real difference.

 

For NPI's to work during a pandemic, you need to be prepared to implement them. 

 

That means educating yourself and your family, and laying in any supplies you might need (alcohol gel, facemasks, N95s)  before a crisis.  

 

Today in Mexico City health officials appear to be taking a page from the St. Louis experience, and are ordering restaurants, pool halls, gyms, sports clubs, swimming pools closed.

 

Perhaps a little late, but better late than never.

 

 

 

Takeout only in Mexico City eateries due to flu

 

 

MEXICO CITY – Restaurants in Mexico City are being ordered to serve only takeout food in a widening shutdown to prevent the spread of a deadly swine flu outbreak.

 

Mexico City Interior Secretary Jose Angel Avila says all restaurants are prohibited from serving customers inside their establishments.

 

He said Tuesday the measure is meant to prevent people from gathering in close proximity and spreading a virus that has already killed 152 people across Mexico.

 

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard is ordering gyms, sports clubs, swimming pools and pool halls closed.

 

The shutdown also includes movie theaters, zoos and museums. Schools are closed nationwide.