# 3262
The impact of the novel H1N1 virus has been mostly felt in the northern hemisphere so far, but with winter fast approaching south of the equator, countries like Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa are bracing themselves for the virus.
The red band signifies the tropics, which has no distinct flu season. Viruses circulate there, at a low level, year round.
First this report from ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) News, then some discussion.
Swine flu: brace yourselves, Roxon warns
Australians should brace for a spike in the number of swine flu cases across the country over the next 48 hours, Health Minister Nicola Roxon has warned.
However, Ms Roxon says there is no need for public alarm at this stage, with cases so far remaining mild.
Ms Roxon says there are a total of 61 confirmed cases of swine flu across Australia.
- 33 in Victoria
- 18 in NSW
- 5 in Queensland
- 3 in South Australia
- 1 in the ACT
- 1 in Western Australia
Six schools have been closed to limit the spread of the virus; four in Victoria and two in South Australia.
Ms Roxon says the number of cases is expected to jump in the next few days.
Trying to keep the H1N1 virus out of Australia, or any other country for that matter, was probably impossible.
As Japan learned nearly 2-weeks ago, our highly mobile society simply provides too many opportunities for a virus to hitch a ride from one country to the next.
While warmer temperatures north of the equator are denying this new influenza ideal conditions to spread, in the colder latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere it is growing colder and more hospitable.
Current Melbourne, Australia Weather
The southern hemisphere’s flu season hits its peak in July or August, and there isn’t enough time between now and then to produce a vaccine for this new virus.
While the northern hemisphere may continue to see pockets of infection, and reintroduction of the virus via air travelers arriving from the below the equator, the main focus of scientists will now shift to the southern hemisphere.
- How will this novel H1N1 virus compete with other seasonal viruses? Will it dominate, co-exist, or fade away?
- Will this H1N1 virus pick up virulence or increase in transmissibility?
- Will this virus lose its sensitivity to oseltamivir (Tamiflu)?
- Will the virus change enough to render `seed strains’ of the vaccine currently under production less effective?
Important questions, not only for that live in the southern hemisphere, but for the rest of the world as well.
