Friday, May 22, 2009

Friday’s Good-News Bad-News

 

 

# 3242

 

 

Anyone who has followed this blog for the past 3+ years (and you all have my deepest apologies) knows that I’ve always been a strong advocate of personal preparedness. 

 

One of the things we’ve discussed, dozens of times, has been the efficacy of surgical facemasks during a pandemic.  

 

Right now, the CDC is not advocating the use of facemasks by the general public due to the H1N1 swine flu virus. Their guidance is continually evolving, however, so check back if conditions change.

 

And quite frankly, right now, I don’t see much point in wearing facemasks in public, either.

 

But for those who have someone in their household ill with the flu, wearing a facemask or respirator may offer some protection.

 

(Please note the `weasel words’, like `may’, and `can’, and `might’.  They are here for a reason.)

 

 

image

 

 

As I’ve always pointed out – the science on how effective they are is pretty thin, and N95 respirators are far superior to surgical masks – but in the end I believe that any mask beats no mask at all.

 

Over the years, despite a good deal of institutionalized bias against their use by the general public, we’ve seen studies that suggest that facemasks may be more protective than previously thought.

 

This week we get another study, this time appearing in the Risk Analysis Journal, which indicates (once again) that facemasks may be more protective than previously thought.

 

 

Face Protection Effective In Preventing The Spread Of Influenza, Study Suggests

ScienceDaily (May 22, 2009) — A new article in the journal Risk Analysis assessed various ways in which aerosol transmission of the flu, a central mode of diffusion which involves breathing droplets in the air, can be reduced. Results show that face protection is a key infection control measure for influenza and can thus affect how people should try to protect themselves from the swine flu.

 

<snip>

 

Their model predicted that the use of face protection including N95 respirators (these fit tight around the face and are often worn by construction workers) and surgical masks (these fit looser around the face and are often worn by dental hygienists) are effective in preventing the flu. The filters in surgical masks keep out 98 percent of the virus. Also, only 30 percent of the benefits of the respirators and masks are achieved if they are used only after an infected person develops symptoms.

 


Whether you agree with the methods or the conclusions of this study or not, this is just part of the mounting evidence that surgical facemasks can play some role in personal protection against respiratory viruses.

 

Are they some guarantee that you won’t get infected? 

 

Of course not.  No more than wearing a seatbelt is a guarantee that you’ll not be injured in a car wreck.

 

But it appears they can help.  Maybe.

 

 

 

 

Now for the bad news . . .

 

After less than one week of what can only be described as swine flu mania in Japan, they are already beginning to see shortages of masks.

 

This from the Wall Street Journal.

 

MAY 22, 2009, 8:36 A.M. ET

Japan's Mask Supply Falters as Flu and Fear Spread

TOKYO -- Japanese makers of surgical masks say that despite boosting production amid the spread of A/H1N1 influenza, they can't keep up with demand from consumers hyper-sensitized to hygiene issues.

"We are receiving inquiries from municipal governments all over Japan, informing us of a mask shortage," said Ryosuke Ikemi, managing director at the Japan Hygiene Products Industry Association, an industry organization.

 

 

As I blogged earlier this week (see Caught With Our Masks Down), we are facing an acute shortage of facemasks and respirators.  

 

Should we see a more virulent virus return in the fall, and Americans embrace the use of facemasks the way they have in Japan, we’d run out in a matter of weeks, too.