# 3113
We are just a little more than a week into this `crisis’, and already we are seeing a great many opinions offered about how this outbreak turns out.
A lot of pundits are saying this virus has been overblown.
And maybe it has.
But folks, basing our opinions on the first week of this outbreak is like predicting the winner of the Daytona 500 after the first lap.
We’ve a long way to go yet.
I am somewhat heartened by the reports of relatively mild illness coming from all countries except Mexico, but until we know why the cases in Mexico seem to be doing worse (and even that is in dispute), it is hard to take too much comfort from that.
Besides, even a `mild’ pandemic could have serious ramifications and exact a heavy toll in lives and suffering.
`Mild’ is, after all, a relative term.
With competing agendas, and concerns, attempts to `mold’ the message will no doubt come from many corners.
Inside the beltway, they call it `spin’. Most of the rest of the world has a less kind word for it.
A pandemic, even a mild one, can wreck economic havoc on a lot of sectors, disrupt society - and depending on how things are handled - make or break public officials.
There is a lot at stake here.
For some there is an inclination to try to downplay concerns, particularly in the beginning - when we have so many unknowns.
Part of that is to offset some of the damage caused by the tabloid media. I’ve seen some pretty appalling examples of fear-mongering over the past week.
Whenever a crisis unfolds, particularly one on a global scale, there is always a `fog of war’ to contend with. We either seem to get too little information, or we get too much and have trouble separating the signal from the noise.
Too often rumors get reported as `fact’, and opinions expressed by editorialists and pundits carry far too much weight.
Looking at today’s headlines, I can find warnings not to turn our backs on this virus along side pronouncements that it is overblown, will be mild, or even fizzle.
To that, all I can say is that many reputable scientists are viewing this new virus as having the `potential’ to become a serious threat.
That doesn’t mean that it will, but that it could.
Flu viruses mutate.
And this one could pick up virulence along the way. Next week, next month, or even next year.
Or this virus could simply become another `seasonal flu’ along side the other A/H1N1, H3N2, and B strains.
It might even disappear over time.
If you want to know how this turns out, wait 10 years and ask a historian.
Until we know a lot more, it is prudent not to put a lot of stock in the daily fluctuations of news, or to base our expectations on the latest hourly count of cases. This is likely to be a rollercoaster, with a lot of ups and downs along the way.
Regardless of how this particular outbreak turns out, everyone needs to take preparedness (for all disasters) seriously. That way, these `scares’ will be a lot less scary for you and your loved ones.
If it isn’t the Swine Flu that affects your family, and your community, it could be something else. Hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, floods . .
Disasters happen. Be ready.
For more information on how to prepare for emergencies, up to and including a pandemic, the following sites should be of assistance.
FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm
READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/
AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/
For Pandemic Preparedness Information:
For more in-depth emergency preparedness information I can think of no better resource than GetPandemicReady.Org.
