# 3400
Hurricane models, particularly model runs that are created before a system has reached hurricane or tropical storm strength, are notoriously unreliable.
And so, these two computer runs (see below) from this evening are probably way off base.
Still . . . it is hurricane season.
And right now there is an area of low pressure in the western Caribbean that the National Hurricane Center is watching.
One model (the GFDL) brings it ashore in south Florida as a tropical storm in 4 days time. Another model (the HWRF) has it as a Cat 1 hurricane threatening West-Central Florida on Wednesday.
GFDL Computer Model for June 29th
HWRF Computer Models For mid-week (July 1st).
`Spaghetti’ model with all runs putting this system in the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) next week.
Right now, I wouldn’t put any money on either of these scenarios. It is simply too soon to know if this system will intensify, or where it will go.
Maybe we’ll know better by Sunday.
But it is a good reminder that if you live anywhere along the Atlantic or Gulf Coast (including up to a couple of hundred miles inland), you are within the strike zone of hurricanes.
And even those who live hundreds of miles from the coast can see tornadoes and floods from the remnants of a tropical system.
Now is the time to prepare. If you haven’t visited the FEMA Hurricane website, this weekend would be a good time to do so.
You can also visit READY.GOV Hurricane Preparedness page for more information on how to prepare.
But don’t just read about it. Do it.
Get your family, or your business, ready to deal with a disaster.
It is early in the hurricane season, and normally we don’t see really big storms until late July or August. But that doesn’t mean it never happens.
It’s not too early in the season to pay attention.
