# 3286
There is a great deal about the H1N1 Swine flu virus that we don’t know; even basic information like its true R0 (Basic Reproductive Number) or its attack rate, or even its CFR (Case Fatality Ratio).
There are estimates, of course.
But they vary widely and are based either on incomplete surveillance numbers or guesswork.
Either way, we’ve yet to get a good handle on this new virus.
It does appear, for now anyway, that the virulence of this new H1N1 is on the low-end of what we expect with a pandemic virus; somewhere near that which we see with seasonal flu.
But even that is a guess, based mostly on a lack of bodies stacking up in local mortuaries.
We are seeing a higher than normal number of young adults and children hospitalized with this virus, however. And a significant number of fatalities.
And that is worrisome.
Today Scotland ponders why they are seeing their 4th critical case out of only 84 reported cases, a much higher ratio than the rest of the UK is seeing.
Perhaps this is a statistical anomaly.
Scotland may simply be more diligent in testing influenza and pneumonia cases than other regions, thereby driving their numbers up. And of course, the 84 confirmed cases probably represents a small fraction of actual cases, which skews any attempt to derive a CFR.
Two articles from the UK press on all this, both of which I lifted from Chen Qi.
Fourth person critically ill with swine flu in Scotland
A fourth person is critically ill with swine flu in Scotland, it emerged today, as the World Health Organisation warned it may soon declare a global flu pandemic.
The fourth case, a 23-year-old woman from Paisley who has underlying health problems, is in intensive care at the Royal Alexandra hospital in Paisley, alongside two other people who are critically ill but stable with swine flu.
As with the three other critical cases, all in the Glasgow area, she has no known links to other swine flu cases and has not travelled to an infected area.
Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish health secretary, said it was a "troubling" development and health officials were urgently trying to investigate any links to other known cases.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Scotland 'hit hardest' by swine flu
Health experts said there is no evidence to explain why Scotland is being hit harder by swine flu than the rest of the UK.
Four people with the virus remain in intensive care in the Glasgow area and 84 other people have been confirmed with swine flu.
The count is significantly higher per head of population than the rest of the country but bacteriology expert Hugh Pennington said the clustering of cases mirrored that seen in other ountries such as the US.
Posted by pkhelan at 6/04/2009 01:37:00 PM
