# 3470
Like it or not, the world is entering into a pandemic period, and we should expect it to last for a year or longer. In order to cope as a society, some of the `rules’ we’ve grown accustomed to may have to change – at least, temporarily.
Unfortunately, a great many people remain in denial, refusing to believe that this is really a pandemic, or that it will affect them personally.
They point to the low fatality rate and somehow fail to take into account the other serious effects of a pandemic, such as an overwhelmed health care system, employee absenteeism, and widespread economic impacts.
These people, quite naturally, will be the last to to prepare or to adapt.
While no one can say how bad this pandemic will become, we are already seeing serious economic and social repercussions in South America, Australia, and New Zealand.
Many businesses are closed with employees on forced holiday, economic losses are already substantial, and their flu season hasn’t even peaked.
New Zealand is reporting record numbers of people with influenza-like illness, and in parts of Australia absenteeism is running over 10% and is rising.
Even in the northern hemisphere, at a time when influenza is practically unheard of, we are seeing spreading illness and regrettably - a small but growing number of deaths – particularly among younger adults and children.
For the week ending July 4th, 2009 the national P&I mortality rate was at the seasonally adjusted epidemic threshold. Pediatric deaths from influenza-related illness continue to be reported throughout June at a rate normally not seen in the summer months.
While the numbers are still relatively low, the fact that we are seeing this level of activity this time of year is worrisome, and the CDC fully expects this virus to ramp up in the fall with an even greater impact.
Many pundits are dismissive of this pandemic because it has, thus far, produced a fairly low fatality rate. While welcome news – that isn’t the only measure of a pandemic.
Experts predict that a third to a half of the population could fall ill over the coming months, and that absenteeism could rise to over 30% in some workplaces.
That has real ramifications for our society, and our economy. We may see disruptions in the supply chain, shortages of essential goods, and increased levels of business closings and unemployment.
And it even raises serious public safety issues.
Imagine fire, EMS, police, or hospital staffs operating during a pandemic at 70% or less. At a time when demand for these services is likely to escalate, their ability to provide them will be reduced.
How we choose to meet the challenge of this pandemic may very well determine how much damage we sustain economically, and as a society.
If we cling rigidly to the `old rules’ simply because we are used to them, instead of adapting to a changing environment, we will probably just make matters worse.
Yes, you can sometimes drive a square peg into a round hole, but the peg and the hole are usually the worse for the wear of it.
In New Zealand employers usually require a medical certificate when an employee is out sick for more than 3 days. While reasonable in normal times, during a pandemic, these sorts of `rules’ no longer make sense.
The last thing overwhelmed GP’s want is for hordes of infected people to show up at their waiting room just to get a note for work.
Luckily, they are working on a solution (hat tip DazzaMc on Flutrackers).
GPs want to issue medical certificates over phone
General practitioners want to issue medical certificates on the basis of a telephone conversation, in an effort to halt the spread of swine flu.
The College of GPs has asked the Ministry of Health to endorse the practice and hopes to have an answer by the end of the week.
College president Jonathan Fox says the Medical Council has guidelines for the issuing of medical certificates, that normally involves the examination of a patient.
But he says these rules can be relaxed during a pandemic.
A small example, perhaps, but it shows that sometimes we have to discard the old ways of doing things in order to deal with a crisis.
Here in the United States – where sick leave benefits for some jobs are marginal or simply don’t exist – many workers who live paycheck-to-paycheck are going to be tempted to come into work when ill out of sheer financial necessity.
I know how difficult it would be for many companies – some of whom are already operating at or near a loss in these economic times – to offer sick leave. It becomes even more difficult, I’m sure, in the face of further economic losses that may come during a pandemic.
But the alternative is: you have sick and infectious employees coming to work, infecting more of your staff (and maybe even customers), which in short order could impair your company’s ability to function at all.
The smart employer will find ways to help support their employees who may be out sick during a pandemic. This could involve full (or perhaps limited) sick leave benefits, organizing volunteer `flu buddies’ to check on those out sick, delivering food baskets, or other innovative support mechanisms.
A pandemic is an extraordinary event, and will require an extraordinary response. And sometimes that requires looking beyond the bottom line or the quarterly report.
Those who fail to adapt, are just simply likely to fail.
In order to survive, businesses are going to have to find new ways to operate in this pandemic environment. And that means breaking away from old ways of thinking.
We no longer have the luxury of maintaining the comfortable status quo. We can’t afford to stay stuck on stupid.
The stakes are too high.
Companies with limited `depth’ may find that with key employees out with the flu, their entire operation grinds to a halt. How many companies rely on one or two people in the payroll/AR/AP department?
If one or both are out sick, can the company operate? And if so, for how long?
Cross training so that more than one person (preferably at least 3) can do each job is imperative. While most people recover from this influenza in a week or two, some may need several weeks, or even months, to recuperate.
This is just one example. But it is a big one.
Every business, every organization, and every family needs a serious, sensible, and workable pandemic plan.
And they need to be drilling and testing it today. Looking for flaws and weaknesses, and finding solutions now.
We’ve no longer the luxury of pretending that a pandemic is a rare, far-off event, and that we can think about it `tomorrow’.
The pandemic is a reality, and in 90 days or less – whether we are ready for it or not - we in the northern hemisphere are likely to be hip deep in it.
We either accept that it’s coming, and find novel ways to adapt to this crisis, or we risk learning the lessons of Darwinism the hard way.
It’s our choice.
