Pandemic Odds

 

# 3441

 

 

Now that a pandemic has been officially declared, and we’ve seen the virus begin to spread to pretty much every corner of the world (104 countries as of Friday), the question on everyone’s mind is:

 

How severe will it be?

 

Right now, the CDC and the World Health Organization are calling this a `moderate’ pandemic.   While the exact CFR (case fatality ratio) isn’t clear, early studies have suggested that this virus is comparable to the 1957 Asian (H2N2) virus in severity.

That assessment, and even the virus itself, is subject to change.

 

If that assessment holds, that would put this pandemic somewhere in the Category 1 to 2 range. 

 

What is clear is that for some small percentage of those infected, this virus can produce profound, even fatal, illness.  

 

Young adults, teenagers, and adolescents seem most vulnerable. And this is something that, psychologically, we really aren’t used to.

 

Influenza and pneumonia generally takes its biggest toll on the elderly.  Usually those over the age of 80, or those with serious comorbid conditions.   

 

In fact, for many years, pneumonia was called `the old man’s friend’, because untreated, it usually induced a relatively quick and peaceful death.

 

We also see between 50 and 100 pediatric deaths due to influenza each year.  While tragic, it is a relatively rare occurrence in industrialized countries. 

 

It is, however, all too common in the developing world. 

 

But the prospect of seeing hundreds . . .perhaps thousands of young adults and children dying this winter from influenza is alien to most of  us.   It just doesn’t happen. 

 

Except in a pandemic, of course.

 

Luckily, the odds of any given person dying in a pandemic - even a severe one - aren’t terribly high. 

 

During the Spanish flu of 1918, only about 1 person in 150 died in the United States.  Fewer still died in northern Europe. 

 

Some places in the world, of course, saw much higher mortality rates.  Anecdotal reports from India indicate as many as 1 person in 20 may have died.  

 

Globally, the death toll (assuming 40 million died) was about 1 in 50.

 

The 1957 pandemic, which may prove more comparable to this one, probably killed no more than 4 million people globally. 

 

Terrible, yes.  But only about 1 person in 750 died.  Probably less. 

 

(In the U.S. there were 70K deaths out of a population of roughly 170 million.  Or about 1 death in every 2440 people).  

 

Which hopefully puts a pandemic into some sort of perspective.  A  pandemic isn’t a `head for the hills, the dams busted’ type event, and it doesn’t require sealing yourself up in a bunker for the duration.

 

 

I realize these statistics won’t bring much comfort if it is you, or someone you know, who is seriously affected by this virus.

 

And none of this is meant to trivialize the very real health threat that a pandemic presents, but it should give you some sense of the odds of surviving a pandemic.

 

While we tend to focus on deaths produced by a pandemic, that isn’t the only thing we need to be prepared for.

 

It is estimated that at least 1/3rd of the population will fall ill during a pandemic.   That’s 100 million Americans, and more than 2 billion people worldwide.

 

The odds that you, or someone you know, will be hit by this virus are therefore pretty high.  You can all but count on it.

 

Which means you, your family, and your business need to be prepared to deal with the effects of this pandemic – even if it remains mild-to-moderate.

 

Hospitals and clinics are almost certainly going to get slammed this winter, and most  people are going to have to tough it out at home if they get sick.

 

Our surge capacity is limited, and at a time when demand will be at its highest, the number of health care workers out with the flu with be a its peak as well.

 

This has the potential to affect more than just those sick with the flu.  Anyone who needs medical attention will find it more difficult to obtain during a pandemic.

 

A pandemic will also affect the general workforce.  

 

With absenteeism rates running as high as 40%, some businesses (particularly those without a solid pandemic plan) may find it difficult or impossible to operate.  

 

Some businesses may even be closed temporarily for public health reasons (sporting events, movie theatres, restaurants are all vulnerable). 

 

Layoffs, plant closings, and even business failures are possible.  Individuals would be wise to at least consider the possibility of being out of work for a time during a pandemic. 

 

While difficult to do in these economic times, having some savings, and a full pantry could be a real advantage in a crisis such as this.

 

How widespread these economic effects will be won’t be known until we see how bad the virus is, and how well prepared we are to deal with it.

 

Businesses that haven’t prepared, need to begin now (see Quick! Who's Your CPO?). 

 

Individuals should be preparing as well (see Creating A Culture Of Preparedness  and Pandemic Solutions: Flu Buddies).  

 

There has never been a better time to volunteer to help with the American Red Cross, The Medical Reserve Corps, CERT, or your Neighborhood watch.  

 

We are truly only prepared as our surrounding community is.  There are roles to play for everyone, including civic organizations, schools, and churches.

 

These are all things we should be doing anyway.  It shouldn’t take a pandemic threat to get us to prepare.

  

There are always threats – earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods . . . .  and preparedness can save lives and ease suffering.

 

For more information on preparedness, you can go to any of these reputable sites.

 

FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm

READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/

AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/

For Pandemic Preparedness Information: HHS Individual Planning Page

For more in-depth emergency preparedness information I can think of no better resource than  GetPandemicReady.Org.