# 5262
The level of new consults for flu-like illnesses in the UK continued to drop dramatically in the latest reporting period, sparking hopes that the worst of Britain’s influenza season is behind them.
The number of deaths (a trailing indicator that can lag several weeks) continues to rise, of course. And even then, the numbers we get are likely to only represent a fraction of the true number of flu-related deaths.
Today’s HPA summary, along with a graph or two, and then a couple of parting comments.
Weekly flu report, 27 January 2011
27 January 2011
Latest figures from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) indicate that flu activity in the UK is continuing to decline. The predominant strain in circulation is now influenza B which has overtaken influenza A H1N1 2009 'swine flu'. This drop in activity is consistent across all the surveillance systems that are used to look at levels of flu.
In the past week, the number of number of GP consultations in England has fallen to 40.7 per 100,000, down from 66.5 per 100,000 the previous week. The baseline level is 30 per 100,000 and the peak level was 124.4 per 100,000 in the flu report dated 30 December.
The total number of people who are reported to have died from flu in the UK since the season began in October has reached 338. The vast majority of the new deaths reported today (84) did not occur in the past week - a substantial number will have occurred over the past six weeks, but due the verification process they have only been confirmed this week.
Of the 306 cases with information on age, ten have been aged less than five years; 14 were aged between 5-14; 217 aged between 15-64 and 65 were older than 64 years of age.
Where information is available on the fatal cases, 184 out of 252 (73 per cent) were in a clinical 'at risk' group for vaccination. Where information on vaccine status was available for this season's trivalent vaccine, 82 out of 108 (76 per cent) had not received their jab this season.
Professor John Watson, head of the respiratory diseases department at the HPA, said: "Our latest flu report suggests levels of flu are continuing to decline across the UK and we appear to be over the peak of activity.
"However flu is still circulating and it is important that people remember to practice good cough and hand hygiene such as covering your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough and sneeze, and then disposing of these as soon as possible to stop it spreading in the community."
You can view the full list of HPA influenza graphs and charts at this link.
The slide in new consults for influenza is obviously a good sign, although the H3N2 virus is still circulating (at low levels) in the UK. While perhaps not likely, a second wave is not out of the realm of possibility.
Among the fatalities (where age data is available), 70% were aged between 15 and 64. A legacy of the 2009 H1N1 virus, which – as often happens with a pandemic virus – demonstrates an age shift to younger patients.
As the numbers decline in the UK and western Europe, we look more for influenza to move to the Eastern European stage.
With 2 or 3 months remaining in this year’s flu season, it is too early for anyone to let down their guard.
In Europe, in North America, and around the world.
