# 5246
The UK’s HPA weekly flu surveillance report is just out, and while the number of new `flu’ consultations continue to decline, the media attention will likely focus on the doubling of flu-related deaths over what was reported last week.
This week’s tally is 254 deaths, up from 112 in the last report (see UK: HPA Influenza Report – Week 2).
While regrettable, this is not a horrendously high or alarming number of fatalities for this point in the flu season. In a `normal’ flu year 2,000-5,000 people are estimated to die from flu-related causes in the UK.
The pronounced age shift to younger victims with this 2009 H1N1 virus, however, most certainly increases its impact.
Most of these newly counted fatalities actually occurred sometime over the past 6 weeks or so, and not the past week. The reporting of deaths usually lags a bit, but more so over the holidays.
And this number, no doubt, represents a substantial undercount of the true number of flu-related deaths in the UK this flu season. Since influenza may spark other health crises, like pneumonia or heart attacks, the flu doesn’t always get credit for a death.
A link to today’s HPA press release (the weekly charts & graphs are yet to be published), along with some excerpts.
I’ll return with a few comments.
Weekly influenza report, 20 January 2011
20 January 2011
Latest figures from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) indicate that flu activity across the UK is now declining. Nevertheless flu is still circulating in the community and influenza A H1N1 (2009) 'swine' flu and influenza B remain the predominant strains. A small proportion of flu continues to result in severe disease, particularly in people under the age of 65.
In the past week, the number of number of GP consultations in England has fallen to 66.5 per 100,000, down from 108.4 per 100,000 the previous week. Vaccine uptake among under 65s in a clinical ‘at risk’ group has reached 48 per cent. Uptake among the over 65s – who are routinely offered the vaccine – is 71.7 per cent.
The total number of people who are reported to have died from flu in the UK since the season began in October has reached 254. The vast majority of the new deaths reported today (142) did not occur in the past week - a substantial number will have occurred over the past six weeks, but due to the backlog over the Christmas and New Year holiday period they have only been confirmed this week.
This mortality data is collected by the HPA in order to understand the key characteristics of the groups that have been affected by flu and provide vital information to front line clinicians and the Department of Health to enable them to make the best decisions on how to prevent, treat and manage flu over the course of a season.
These figures represent only a proportion of those who may have died from flu or complications from flu, such as pneumonia, over the current flu season. Precise figures for flu related deaths each winter are not available but estimates based on excess all cause mortality figures are typically in the region of 0-5,000, predominantly in people over 65 years of age.
Pulling a few statistics from this press release, we find that:
Of the 214 patients for which we have virus strain information:
- 195 (91%) had the H1N1 (2009) strain
- 3 (1.4%) had an untyped influenza A strain
- 16 (6.6%) had influenza B
Of the 210 deaths for which we age information:
- 7 (3.3%) were under the age of 5
- 11 (5.2%) were aged 5-14
- 137 (65.2%) were 15-64
- 55 (26.1%) were in people aged 65 and over
Of the 159 victims for which their pre-existing health concerns could be established, 129 (81%) were in a clinical 'at risk' group for vaccination.
And perhaps most tellingly, of the 71 fatalities for which their seasonal flu vaccination status could be established, 59 (83%) had not received a flu vaccine this year.
Additional evidence that getting the yearly flu vaccine can provide substantial protection against influenza. No, the flu jab isn’t 100% protective (17% of the deaths had received the vaccine verses 83% who had not).
But I do like those odds.
