# 5411
When it comes to risk communications during a crisis, you’d have to go a long way to beat the advice of Dr. Peter Sandman and his wife Dr. Jody Lanard.
Both are highly regarded consultants in the field, and have been called upon by entities both public and private during times of crisis. Between the two of them, they produce a wealth of invaluable risk management advice freely available on their website:
For anyone even remotely involved as a spokesperson for an agency, organization, or company during a crisis, this site should be viewed as essential reading.
Over the years I’ve featured their writings a number of times, including here, here, and here. For more, simply do a blog search on `Sandman’.
Last night Sandman and Lanard responded to an anonymous journalist’s question regarding the open discussion of `worst-case’ scenarios in Japan.
You’ll find an excerpt below, but follow the link to read it in its entirety (and follow the links as well!).
Japan’s nuclear crisis: The need to talk more candidly about worst case scenarios
name:Anonymous
field:Newspaper reporter
date: March 16, 2011
location:Canada
comment:
I’m a reporter working on a story that takes a look at the rhetoric/fear-mongering surrounding the disaster in Japan. I figured you’d have some awesome insights based on your field of work.
The story is pegged to these comments, from Europe’s Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger, on Tuesday:
- “There is talk of an apocalypse and I think the word is particularly well chosen. Practically everything is out of control. I cannot exclude the worst in the hours and days to come.” [from: www.telegraph.co.uk]
- “The site is effectively out of control. In the coming hours there could be further catastrophic events which could pose a threat to the lives of people on the island.” [from: msnbc.tumblr.com]
Do you have any reactions?
peter responds:
Note: My wife and colleague Jody Lanard collaborated on this response.
Oettinger’s statements are at the upper end of dramatic. “Practically everything” isn’t out of control.
Statements like his result from the failure of officials to follow two crucial precepts of crisis communication.
- Be incredibly respectful of and empathic about normal people’s fears and fantasies.
- Get out in front of worst-case-scenario speculation by sharing the worst case scenarios that officials consider possible and worth planning for.
The main communication problem results from the public’s inability to know how much of the situation is under how much control, and what might happen if things get worse. Japanese officials have not helped us to understand that. Worse, they have not communicated in ways that encourage us both to trust that they are telling us everything they know and everything they’re worried about, and to trust that they know what they are doing.
What are the worst cases their experts are worried about and working to prevent? The world has a right to know that, and the world has a right to judge them harshly for not revealing that. More importantly, the world has no choice but to try to figure out on its own what the worst case scenarios might be that officials are either too irresponsible to consider or too cowardly to reveal.
Under such conditions, outside speculation about worst case scenarios justifiably gains traction – especially since the trajectory of the story has been to keep getting worse in the face of official assurances that things were not likely to get worse.
Ideally, officials would have preempted much outside speculation by sharing their worst fears publicly. Our crisis communication advice is always that officials should try to recreate in the public the same level of concern that they themselves are experiencing, and should focus about equally on the two most important questions about the short-term future:
- What do you think is most likely to happen?
- What’s the worst outcome that you haven’t dismissed as too unlikely to be worth worrying about?
Since officials have avoided answering the second question, speculation has taken off.
Great stuff, so go read it all.
