# 5563
With National Hurricane Preparedness Week this Sunday (May 22nd), it’s time for NOAA’s yearly Hurricane outlook for the Atlantic Tropical season.
Last year (see NOAA 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook) NOAA called for an above average tropical season, and that is exactly what we had, although the coastline of the United States was largely spared.
Tropical outlooks can give us an idea of the number of storms that are likely to form . . . but tell us almost nothing about where they are likely to go.
But whether we have an active outlook, or a slow one, it only takes one landfalling hurricane in your vicinity to make it a high impact year for you and your family.
Now is the time to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season.
This year we’ve already seen a preliminary outlook from Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.
This year, he and his team are calling for an above average Atlantic tropical season with an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
Gray’s team will issue an updated outlook in early June, and in August (when the season should grain momentum) begin issuing Two-Week Forecasts for hurricane activity until October.
Today, NOAA has issued their outlook for 2011, and they are calling for :
- 12 to 18 named storms
- 6 to 10 could become hurricanes
- 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater)
This from NOAA News.
NOAA hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season
May 19, 2011
Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia (from left to right on Sept. 16) were part of the onslaught of Atlantic storms last hurricane season (2010).
Download here. (Credit: NOAA)
The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:
- 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
- 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
- 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
“However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”
Climate factors considered for this outlook are:
- The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
- Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.
- La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.
Whether you live in `hurricane country’ or not, I hope you’ll use next week’s Hurricane Preparedness campaign to prepare your home and business for disasters of all types.
