Credit CDC Traveler’s Health Lunar New Years
# 8172
In China, it is often called Chunyun, Chinese New Year, or simply, The Spring Festival.
In Vietnam, it is called Tết Nguyên Đán or Feast of the First Morning. Tết for short.
And in Korea it is called Seollal.
By whatever name, the lunar new year is no doubt the most important holiday in all of Asia; where hundreds of millions of people flee the big cities and return to their home towns for a few days to attend a reunion dinner with their families - preferably on the eve of the lunar New Year.
Duck and chicken are, as you might imagine, very popular dishes during these gatherings, and the live markets do tremendous business during this time of year.
The Spring festival travel season begins about 2 weeks before the Lunar New Year, and runs about 6 weeks. With the New Year falling on January 31st this year, we are now seeing the start of this tremendous annual human migration begin.
One which will see more than 3 billion passenger journeys – mostly by crowded train – made in China over the next 40 days.
All of which provides ample opportunities for infectious diseases (including both avian and human influenzas, mosquito borne illnesses, tuberculosis, etc.) to spread quickly between towns large and small. And with the rise in the number of avian H7N9 flu infections the past couple of weeks, that has public health officials on alert.
First a, a long and unusually frank report from Xinhua News, then I’ll be back with a little more.
Bird flu epidemic overshadows Chinese New Year
Xinhua, January 15, 2014
As millions of Chinese prepare to return to their hometowns for Spring Festival, the challenges of containing the latest H7N9 bird flu epidemic have come sharply into focus.
Health authorities are deeply concerned by the resurgent epidemic, with about twenty new cases reported in the first two weeks of 2014, mostly in eastern costal regions. About 150 cases of H7N9 bird flu have been confirmed in China since the first case in March last year.
The virus is more active in winter and spring, and high density transportation in coaches, trains and aircraft could create "favorable circumstances" for the epidemic to spread, according to Li Lanjuan of the Chinese Academy of Engineering.
Li is China's leading researcher on bird flu and a member of the H7N9 prevention and control group. She warns that the virus might be spread by migrants returning to their, mainly rural, homes from developed eastern regions.
TRAVEL RUSH
During the world' s biggest annual human migration in the 40 days around Spring Festival, about 3.62 billion trips will be made this year, according to Tuesday's National Development and Reform Commission press release.
This year, the highlight of Spring Festival, Chinese Lunar New Year, falls on Jan. 31. It is the most important Chinese occasion for family reunions.
"We are worried about the risk brought by massive numbers of people gathering together in confined spaces," said Dr. Liang Weifeng of the medical college at Zhejiang University.
In Zhejiang, new H7N9 cases have been reported for six consecutive days. As of Tuesday, the eastern province had reported a total of eleven, including some fatalities. Zhejiang was also the site of China's first confirmed human-to-human transmission last November, when a man was infected while caring for his father-in-law.
More alarming still, Guizhou Province in the remote southwest of the country confirmed its first H7N9 fatality on Saturday; that of a migrant worker who returned from Zhejiang on Jan.4.
<SNIP>
Besides the travel rush, another problem facing health authorities is that Spring Festival is also the peak season for poultry sales and consumption.
The Chinese have a long tradition of eating fresh ingredients especially at important feasts and family reunions. Chinese people, especially those in eastern regions, like to buy live chicken and duck and slaughter them at home for freshness and a festival atmosphere. Despite a government ban, live poultry markets are reemerging in some regions.
Large migrations of people along with mass gatherings - such as we see each year with the Hajj, Carnival in Rio, and the Super Bowl - are of particular concern to public health officials and epidemiologists, as they have the potential to amplify a small infectious disease outbreak into a bigger one – both in terms of numbers and geographic spread.
Last October there was considerable concern over the impact of the Hajj on the spread of MERS-CoV (see Masks, MERS, and The Upcoming Hajj), but as it turned out we didn’t see a big spike in cases – or global spread – of the virus in the wake of that annual religious pilgrimage.
In 2010, in The Impact Of Mass Gatherings & Travel On Flu Epidemics , we looked at a study published in BMC Public Health, that looked at and attempted to quantify the impacts of mass gatherings and holiday travel on the spread of an influenza epidemic.
And in 2011, in Viruses With A Ticket To Ride, we looked at a study that appeared in BMC Infectious Diseases, that looked at the incidence of ARI (Acute Respiratory Infection) presenting within 5 days of train or tram travel in the UK. They found that recent bus or tram use within five days of symptom onset was associated with an almost six-fold increased risk of consulting for ARI.
While seemingly a strong finding, this observational study was limited by its small size, the fact that it was only conducted in a single location (Nottingham, UK), and that it was conducted during a normal flu season, not a pandemic.
The good news is, that while mass gatherings may provide greater opportunities for disease outbreaks, history has shown that major epidemic outbreaks have been a rarity (for an exception, see The Impact Of Mass Gatherings & Travel On Flu Epidemics).
Still, public health authorities must anticipate and prepare for the worst.
Because the old saying is true, `When public health works, nothing happens’.
For some health and safety tips from the CDC if you will be traveling to Asia this New Year’s, you can visit:
Lunar New Year - Watch - Level 1, Practice Usual Precautions
