Credit Mens et Manus blog
# 8562
We’ve recently seen a significant drop in the apparent mortality rate of the MERS coronavirus – at least, based on the limited (and often delayed) information we’ve been getting out of the Middle East. While `good news’, the reality is the CFR (case fatality ration) remains disturbingly high.
While at first this drop in mortality seemed likely due to the greater number of asymptomatic cases reported over the past month, Maia Majumder – working on her Mens et Manus blog – has done a terrific job teasing out the data, and finds the answer is a bit more complicated than that.
Follow the link below to read Maia’s analysis:
MERS: Mortality & comorbidity in symptomatic cases
After posting my recently updated charts on mortality and comorbidity rates among MERS cases, I received several questions regarding why there’s been such a sudden drop-off in both since the onset of the current outbreak. Here they are for quick reference:
Some have been suggesting that this might be the case because of the large number of asymptomatic cases that have been diagnosed since March 20th. As of today, exactly 2/3 of all asymptomatic MERS cases have been reported during the current outbreak – 52 of 78 total. This is a sensible hypothesis, given that 97% of asymptomatic cases thus far have occurred in individuals without pre-existing conditions and none of them have ended in death.
The bottom line, as well illustrated by Maia’s work, is that younger and healthier people are increasingly making up a part of the symptomatic MERS patient pool. Since healthier people are more likely to survive any illness than those without serious comorbidities, the fatality rate has begun to decrease.
As to why we are seeing this shift in patient demographics now . . .
Well, that’s just one of the unanswered $64 questions with this emerging virus. One, that hopefully can be resolved now that the Saudi MOH seems more engaged in pursuing the epidemiological investigation into this outbreak.
Stay tuned.
