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The University of Minnesota has released a new, 13 page report on the economic impact of the H5N2 avian flu in Minnesota, and has determined that as of May 11th – that cost is nearing 310 million dollars. Researchers have determined for every 1 million dollars in direct loses, the ripple effect through the economy accounts for 1.8 million dollars in economic loses.
With just shy of 8 million birds (mostly turkeys) killed, culled, or scheduled for culling – Minnesota is the second hardest hit state, comprising just under 25% of the total birds lost to date. Iowa leads with more than 25 million birds (mostly chickens) lost.
Hanging heavily over the entire industry is the knowledge that – even if outbreaks continue to decline over the summer – the odds favor a return (and probable expansion) of these outbreaks next fall.
We’ve a press release, and a link to the full report, from the University of Minnesota.
Extension analysis: Economic impact of avian flu nears $310 million as of May 11
Media Contact: Allison Sandve, University of Minnesota Extension, office 612-626-4077, mobile 651-492-0811, ajsandve@umn.edu
ST. PAUL, Minn. (5/18/2015)—Losses in poultry production and related businesses due to avian influenza are estimated at $309.9 million in Greater Minnesota, according to a newly released emergency economic impact analysis from University of Minnesota Extension.
Using economic modeling, analysts determined that for every million dollars in direct losses, the estimated ripple effect leads to $1.8 million in overall economic losses, including $450,000 in wages. Ripple effect losses stem from factors including reduced wage-earner and business-to-business spending.
The Extension analysis put losses of poultry production--both turkeys and egg-laying chickens--at $113 million as of May 11.
"These projections represent where we stand as of May 11," said Brigid Tuck, Extension senior analyst, who led the study. "If the virus affects more farms, as we have seen since May 11, the impact levels will rise. If barns stay empty for another cycle of poultry production, these numbers could potentially double"
Poultry production and processing is a $3 billion industry in the state; overall, poultry growers represent about 7 percent of the agricultural and forestry economy. The study focuses on the state's 80 non-metro counties, where nearly all poultry production occurs. Among Extension's other findings:
- The industry that produces feed for poultry and other animals will be hardest hit by poultry production losses. For every $1 million of lost poultry production, nearly $230,000 of demand for poultry feed is lost.
- For every 100 jobs lost due to reduced poultry processing, 9 are in the trucking industry.
- Other job losses related to poultry processing are 6 and 7 per 100 jobs, respectively, in wholesale trade and specialized poultry processing.
The idling of 100 poultry processing jobs will result in an estimated 210 jobs being affected across all industries. Economic losses stemming per 100 poultry processing jobs impacted are estimated at $44.8 million, including $9.3 million in labor income.
The full 13-page PDF FILE CAN BE DOWNLOADED HERE.
