T.S. Harvey: The Eyes Of Texas Are Upon It

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Although currently only a tropical storm, Harvey - which regenerated after crossing the Yucatan - is expected to reach CAT 1 hurricane status before making landfall early Saturday.  Laden with tropical moisture, and expected to linger after crossing the coast on Saturday, Harvey's biggest threat is expected to be flooding.

Tropical storm force winds could be battering the coastline by Friday am, a full 24 hours before the storm center arrives. In addition to heavy rain and hurricane force winds, Harvey could produce some coastal flooding, and even spin off some small tornadoes.

From this morning's NHC forecast discussion:

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions of the Texas coast beginning on Friday.

2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.

3. A Storm Surge Warning is now effect from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the next 36 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 23.2N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 24.0N 93.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 25.1N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 26.3N 95.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 27.5N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 97.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/0600Z 27.6N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

While hurricane force winds and storm surge get all the headlines, inland flooding often causes the most damage and loss of life.  Tropical storm Allision - which dumped 30+ inches of rain on southeast Texas in 2001 - never reached hurricane strength, but caused 9 billion dollars in damage, and killed 23 people in Texas. 

So, if you haven’t already downloaded the updated Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide, and visited NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation Hurricane Preparedness Week 2017 web page, now would be an excellent time to do so.

When it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.