#12,834
For the fourth time in the past two weeks Italy's IZSV (Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie) has posted an update announcing new outbreaks of HPAI H5N8 in the northern half of that country.
Today's two outbreaks bring to 10 the number reported in October alone and is Italy's 50th poultry outbreak of 2017. Of those, 35 have been reported in the past 90 days.Although a handful of other European countries (including the UK, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, etc.) have reported a smattering of H5N8 cases over the summer (see DEFRA: Outbreak Assessment On H5N8 In Europe - Summer 2017) , Italy has reported the most outbreaks by far.
This persistence over the summer - albeit at low levels across most of Europe - is in sharp contrast to previous years when reports of H5N8 in Europe and North America all but disappeared once spring ended (see PNAS: The Enigma Of Disappearing HPAI H5 In North American Migratory Waterfowl).
First today's report, then I'll return with a bit more:
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Italy
2016/2017 - H5N5, H5N82016 - H7N72014/2015 - H5N8, H5N12013 - H7N7
2016/2017 – H5N5, H5N8
Outbreaks | PDF (last update: 17/10/2017)
Maps | PDF (last update: 17/10/2017)
October 2017
17/10/2017 – On 13 October, the Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell’Emilia-Romagna identified as positive for Avian Influenza A virus subtype H5 a fattening turkeys farm located in Brescia province (Lombardy region). The farm hosted 16.178 male birds. Following the confirmation of H5N8 in another fattening turkey farm belonging the same owner, samples were collected on 10 October, testing negative for Avian Influenza. Further samples were collected on 13 October, after increased mortality was reported to the local Veterinary Services.
On 14 October, IZSLER confirmed as positive for Avian Influenza A virus subtype H5 a backyard flock in Sondrio province (Lombardy region). Approximately 10 broilers were present in the flock. All the birds were dead at the time of confirmation. Epidemiological investigations revealed an epidemiological connection with the grower farm in Bergamo Province confirmed as HPAI H5N8 case on 11 October.
On 16 October, the National Reference Laboratory (NRL) for Avian Influenza and Newcastle Disease characterised as subtype H5N8 the viruses isolated in the last two outbreaks.
As Italy continues to deal with what are presumably remnants from last winter's epizootic, we are rapidly approaching the heart of this year's fall migration (see 2016's Sci Repts.: Southward Autumn Migration Of Waterfowl Facilitates Transmission Of HPAI H5N1).
Exactly what that will bring to Europe, North America and Asia this fall is unknowable. Some years - for reasons we don't yet understand - avian flu is simply a no-show.But we've seen growing concerns expressed by both DEFRA and the ECDC not only over the expected return of HPAI H5N8 this winter - but that HPAI H5N6 - which broke out of China last year and surfaced in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines, could potentially follow H5N8 into Europe (see ECDC/EFSA Joint Report: Avian Influenza Overview Oct 2016–Aug 2017).
That said, our track record for second guessing what these avian flu viruses will do next has been spectacularly bad - so above all - we should be prepared for some surprises along the way.
