Saturday, September 08, 2018

NHC 5am Key Messages On T.S. Florence

5am Track 9/8




















#13,490

As I mentioned yesterday, in #Natlprep: No Time Like The Present To Prepare, long range models continue to show a potential threat to the eastern seaboard late this week from Florence - which is expected to become a major hurricane in the next 3 days. 
While the storm's ultimate path - and strength - remain uncertain, everyone living along the southeast to mid-Atlantic coast - including even hundreds of miles inland - should be paying attention, and making any needed preparations. 
Do not be fooled by the fact that Florence remains a tropical storm. It is expected to enter an extremely favorable environment in the next 24 hours, and will be passing over unusually warm waters at it moves west.

While intensity forecasts remain problematic, the NHC upgraded its projection overnight:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT   08/0900Z 24.5N  54.2W   55 KT    65 MPH
  12H  08/1800Z 24.6N  55.0W   60 KT    70 MPH
  24H  09/0600Z 24.6N  56.0W   65 KT    75 MPH
  36H  09/1800Z 24.6N  57.2W   75 KT    85 MPH
  48H  10/0600Z 24.9N  59.0W   90 KT  105 MPH
  72H  11/0600Z 26.0N  64.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  12/0600Z 28.0N  70.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 30.9N  75.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
The following tweet from the National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)
was released following their 5am update.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1038369689766977539


Bottom line, Florence is expected to become a major storm in 3 days time, and while its exact path remains uncertain, the Southeastern United States appears to be increasingly at risk.

By the time we know for sure where it is headed, the store shelves in that region will be wiped clean, so plan accordingly and use this weekend wisely.