#13,567
As the NOAA graphic above illustrates, as we get into October the far Atlantic's production of tropical storms and hurricanes gives way to the Caribbean and coastal regions. The area in the Central American Gyre (CAG), south of the Yucatan, is often fertile ground for late season development.
This morning, an area of disturbed weather the NHC has been watching for several days has been given a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days, as it moves north into the still-warm Gulf of Mexico.This tweet from my local NWS, summarizes the threat.
Unless and until a solid circulation forms, models predicting direction, and intensification, are `iffy' at best. We should have a much better idea where this proto-storm is going over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Residents along the Gulf Coast (including myself), should monitor this system, and be prepared to react should this storm become more of a threat.And while it is past the season's peak, it is worth remembering that there are 7 more weeks to the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
As always, when it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.
