Thursday, February 14, 2019

Saudi MOH Announces 1 Additional MERS Case In Wadi Aldwasir (Deceased)

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#13,864


The MERS outbreak in Wadi Aldwasir continues to show some signs of slowing with only two cases reported over the past two days.  Today's case involves a 60 y.o. male - already deceased - who is listed as secondary, healthcare-acquired case.

https://www.moh.gov.sa/en/CCC/events/national/Documents/Epiwk7-19.pdf

Without onset dates, we can't tell if this is simply a belatedly reported case - or the patient wasn't discovered to be infected until he was near death.
The publicly available Saudi Surveillance data only provides limited information on each case, and as information changes, edits are made - sometimes days or even weeks after the original release - making it a work in progress.
Case classifications, outcomes, and other data can change, making it useful to go back over the 38 cases reported in from Wadi Aldwasir since late January, picking up those changes (see spreadsheet below).



This information will undoubtedly change, but so far we can glean the following:
  • Of the 38 cases reported to date, 4 are reported deceased & 3 as recovered
  • 9 cases are listed as Primary (community acquired), but only 5 of those  had recent camel contact 
  • 9 cases reported recent camel contact, but 4 are classified as a secondary contact of a known case
  • 10 cases are listed in Home isolation, suggesting either a mild or asymptomatic infection
  • 2 cases are listed as Secondary, community-acquired - but so far we don't really know under what circumstances that occurred.
  • 22 are listed as secondary, healthcare-acquired.   It isn't clear how many are Health care workers, and how many may be patients exposed in the hospital.
  • 5 cases are listed as secondary, household-contact - but we don't know if this is all in one household, or more than one
  • 6 cases are female, 32 are male.
  • 19 remain hospitalized (or their status hasn't been updated).
  •  Of the 61 cases reported by Saudi Arabia during the first 7 weeks of 2019, 38 are in Wadi Aldwasir. Of those, 29 are listed as secondary infections.
A lot of individual data points to ponder, but we'll have to await a more comprehensive report from the WHO, in order to make much sense of it.

Meanwhile, 23 other cases have been reported in KSA since the first of the year, with 12 of those in the capital city Riyadh.