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| Original Map Credit Wikipedia |
#13,928
The MERS outbreak in Wadi Aldwasir, which ten days ago appeared to be winding down, has picked up steam again, with the 4th secondary case reported by the MOH over the past 6 days.
Additionally, a new primary case (with camel exposure) from Arar City was announced, bringing the Saudi 2019 total to 102 cases.
The newly adopted (in Epi week 10) reporting format by the MOH provides us with less information than before, as the type of secondary infection and hospitalization status, are no longer provided.
This latest report raises the Wadi Aldwasir outbreak which began in late January to 58 cases, including the index case, 12 primary cases, 42 secondary cases (household or healthcare related), and 3 of unknown origin.Despite these elevated numbers, community transmission of the MERS virus appears to remain sporadic and limited, meaning the virus has fallen short of producing a sustained epidemic.
But a 2017 study found the virus's basic reproduction number (R0 : pronounced R-nought) was inching closer to the magic number of 1.0, which is what is required for an outbreak to have `legs' (see A Pandemic Risk Assessment Of MERS-CoV In Saudi Arabia).So we continue to monitor events in Saudi Arabia and the Middle East very carefully, looking for any signs that the virus is becoming more of a threat.
