#14,049
News has slowed coming out of China on their African Swine Fever epizootic - with no new outbreaks officially reported since April 21st - but we continue to see nearly daily unverified reports in social media, and the dissident press, of dead pigs `死猪' found dumped in rivers or buried in mass graves.
The most recent FAO report (May 2nd) reads:
China
This million pigs lost number has remained nearly static for several months, while several independent (albeit, outside looking in) analyses estimate China's losses may have already run into the hundreds of millions of pigs (see African Swine Fever In China: Epizootic or An EpicZootic?).
Since the China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) confirmed its first African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Liaoning Province on 3 August 2018, 129 ASF outbreaks detected in 31 Provinces/Autonomous Region/Municipalities. MARA reported on 23 April 2019 that 1,020,000 pigs have been culled in an effort to halt further spread.
While we wait for more credible data from Asia, we have the UK's latest DEFRA (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) update on ASF activity in Eastern Europe, which has been dealing with this disease for a full decade.
The (limited) good news is the number of ASF outbreaks reported over the past few months has declined over what we were seeing a year ago, although how long that lasts is anyone's guess.
Updated Outbreak Assessment #21
African Swine fever in Eastern Europe
30 April 2019
Ref: VITT/1200 ASF in Eastern Europe
Disease report
Since our last report on the 18 th March 2019, there have been new outbreaks of ASF in domestic pigs and cases in wild boar in Eastern Europe. The numbers of outbreaks in domestic pigs (backyard and commercial) since July 2018 are summarised in Table 1 for each country. Over the past 6 months, there has continued to be a decrease in reports in domestic pigs, with reports in March and April, restricted to Romania (16), Ukraine (4), Moldova (1) and Russia (1).
Although the largest number of outbreaks in domestic pigs each month is for Romania, these were mainly backyard pig small-holdings. In contrast, the number of cases in wild boar has remained high in March and April (Table 2). Although wild boar cases have been increasing from October 2018 in Eastern Europe, there have been no new large geographical jumps so far in 2019, and increased numbers of ASF-positive wild boar may be related to increased wild boar culling and surveillance activities. The last significant jump of ASF within Europe was the emergence of ASF in Belgium in September 2018, where there have been 719 reports of ASF in wild boar to 5/4/2019.
(SNIP)
Situation assessment
Eastern Europe is continuing to report outbreaks of ASF in domestic pigs, although this appears to be restricted to the south-east region; namely Ukraine, and Romania, with one outbreak reported in Moldova, and one in Russia, in March and April. In many parts of Eastern Europe, the recent increase in reporting in wild boar is likely due to a severe winter which has caused the increase in size of surveillance zones, and as such is likely to continue. However, while control efforts may be reducing incidence in domestic pigs, the wild boar population represents a significant reservoir in Eastern Europe which may hinder eradication, and serve as a source for further geographic jumps.
While ASF has not been observed in Denmark at present, the threat of ASF from Germany has led to a prevention programme of building a fence along the Danish/German border as a way to protect the Danish pig industry. Additionally, Denmark has recently undertaken a cleansing and disinfection (C & D) control campaign, sampling transport vehicles. The Danish Authorities reported that C&D was insufficient, leaving remnants of manure, which could pose an ASF risk, in 42% of vehicles tested (PAFF, 2019).
Conclusion
Despite the significant reduction in the number of ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs in Eastern Europe over the past six months, the disease is still present across much of the region, with large numbers of cases in wild boar. The risk therefore remains at MEDIUM for the entry of contaminated or infected products into UK, given the ongoing situation in Eastern Europe, and continued reports of ASF in wild boar in Belgium. The risk of exposure to the pig population in the UK is still highly dependent on the level of biosecurity on individual pig premises but is still considered to be low, although the situation is being kept under review. We will continue to monitor the situation.
We would like to highlight to all pig keepers and the public the importance of ensuring pigs are not fed catering waste, kitchen scraps or pork products, thereby observing the swill feeding ban. All pig keepers should be aware that visitors to their premises should not have had recent contact with pigs and pig premises in the affected regions. Anybody returning from any ASF-affected area should avoid contact with domestic pigs, whether commercial holdings or smallholdings, areas with feral pigs or wild boar, until they are confident they have no contaminated clothing, footwear or equipment. Pig keepers and veterinarians should remind themselves of the clinical signs for ASF.
Any suspect cases must be reported promptly. See: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/african-swine-fever
We would like to remind the public that any feeding of meat products, including the feeding of swill, kitchen scraps and catering waste, to wild boar or feral pigs is also illegal. A poster reminding pig keepers of this is available: http://apha.defra.gov.uk/documents/surveillance/diseases/african-swine-fever-poster.pdf
