Living With The `New Normal'

Epidemics of the 21st Century Credit WHO

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Although the above graphic only runs through 2017, the first two decades of the 21st century have been marred by a large number of major infectious disease outbreaks (see WHO Handbook: Managing Epidemics). 

When you add in two DRC Ebola outbreaks which began in 2018, of the 13 major outbreaks of the 21st Century, 11 have come over the past 10 years.

And these were just the major events; to this list we could easily add Chikungunya and Dengue in the Americas, Lassa Fever in West Africa, Monkeypox in Nigeria, EV-71 in Asia and EV-D68 globally, Nipah virus in India and Bangladesh - along with the rise of old scourges, thought to be in retreat, like measles, mumps, diphtheria, and polio. 

While there have always been multiple, often devastating infectious disease outbreaks around the globe, the difference today is how quickly that our highly mobile and interconnected society can spread a disease threat, both regionally and globally. 

We undoubtedly know about more outbreaks today, due to the proliferation of cell phones and the internet, but there seems little doubt that the number of global disease threats is on the rise.

A scenario that was predicted more than 30 years ago by anthropologist George Armelagos of Emory University, who warned that we are entering the age of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (see The Third Epidemiological Transition).

Today, BBC news has an interview with Dr Michael Ryan, the executive director of the WHO's health emergencies program, that echos some of the same concerns. Follow the link below to read it in its entirety.

Large Ebola outbreaks new normal, says WHO 

By James Gallagher Health and science correspondent, BBC News

Just in Africa alone, the WHO is responding to 72 events (see Outbreaks and Emergencies Bulletin, Week 22: 27 May - 02 June 2019), and from many parts of the world (think China, North Korea, the Middle East, etc.), we only have limited visibility.

The disease threats aren't just limited to humans, as we are also watching what is estimated to be the worst epizootic in history - the loss of hundreds of millions of pigs to African Swine Fever - in Asia and Eastern Europe (see African Swine Fever In China: Epizootic or An EpicZootic?).

Add in climate change, the loss of government control in some regions of the world, and a growing mistrust of modern science, and you have the ingredients for a major global disaster. 

While I remain enough of an optimist to believe we will deal with whatever comes down the pike, I'm enough of a realist to know that it won't be without a heavy cost.  

How heavy will likely depend upon how prepared we are when the next pandemic starts.

In recent years we've seen a renewed push by governments and agencies to prepare for the next pandemic:

WHO Global Influenza Strategy 2019-2030

CDC: 2018 Interim Guidance On Allocating & Targeting Pandemic Influenza Vaccine

WHO: Global EOC Pandemic Flu Exercise (GEOCX)

CLADE X: Archived Video & Recap

CDC/HHS Community Pandemic Mitigation Plan - 2017

ECDC: Guide To Revising The Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Plan

Yet the private sector, most local governments, and the general public seem strangely unengaged.   As if we `already had our pandemic in 2009', and it wasn't that bad.

Although increased global preparedness for the next pandemic is essential (see World Bank: World Ill-Prepared For A Pandemic), so too are preparations at the community, and individual, level.

Much of the day-to-day burden of keeping society and the economy going will fall on local entities; Hospitals, EMS, Police and Public Safety, local Emergency Management, Schools, Churches and Organizations, small businesses, Neighborhood Watch organizations, and ultimately individual families, their friends and their neighbors. 

A pandemic could last a year or longer, and have several waves.  

Businesses, both large and small, will need to have plans in place to operate as safely as possible during a pandemic (see Pandemic Planning For Business) - not only for the community good - but for their own economic survival (see CDC Business Pandemic Checklist).

Admittedly we could easily go years, or even decades, before the next pandemic strikes. Or, it could begin somewhere in the world tomorrow. Pandemics are inevitable, the timing is really the only question.

For a family or an individual - if you are well prepared for a flood, an earthquake, a hurricane, or any other extended disaster - you are in better shape to deal with a pandemic.  Unfortunately, fewer than half of all American households are even close to being prepared.

If you aren't already prepared for a two-week disruption in power, water, food or medicine distribution, or any other extended disaster, you should seriously consider making preparations now.  A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov.

Some other preparedness resources you might want to revisit include:

The Gift Of Preparedness - Winter 2018

#NatlPrep: Revisiting The Lloyds Blackout Scenario

#NatlPrep : Because Pandemics Happen

Disaster Planning For Major Events

And then talk to your family and your neighbors, and discuss how you will help one another should a pandemic - or some other disaster - occur (see In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?).

A little preparation today might just go a long ways towards mitigating the risks to you and your loved ones later on, and speed your community's recovery.