#14,134
The island of Taiwan sits between 60 and 90 miles off the Chinese mainland - more specifically Fujian Province - but the ROC exercises political control over several groups of islands (Kinmen, Wuqiu & Matsu) that lie much closer to the mainland.
Over the past 6 months, Taiwan's coast guard has intercepted dozens of `sea drift' pigs (see here, here, here, and here); carcasses found either floating in the water or washed up on beaches, presumably dumped into rivers in Fujian Province.With today's report, 11 of these pig carcasses have tested positive for African Swine Fever (ASF), despite the fact that officially, Fujian Province hasn't reported an outbreak since since December 24th, 2018 and China's MOA officially lifted their blockade on the movement of pigs on February 6th.
As noted previously in this blog (see here, here, and here), China's farmers have a history of clandestine dumping of diseased livestock into rivers and lakes rather than reporting outbreaks to local officials.
This report from Taiwan's BAPHIQ (Bureau of Animal Plant Health Inspection & Quarantine):
China's mainland drifting Golden Gate pigs, detected African porcine virus DNA positive
The Central Disaster Response Center (Strain Center) of the African Hog Chops said today (16th) that on the 14th, the bank of the two biliary islands in Liyu Township (Xiaojinmen), Jinmen County, found dead pigs drifting ashore, sampled by the Jinmen County Animal and Plant Epidemic Prevention Institute.
It was sent to the Animal Husbandry Health Laboratory of the Council of Agriculture (the Animal Husbandry Institute) for testing. The nucleic acid of African swine fever virus was detected positively today, and the similarity between the gene fragment and the isolated strain of mainland China was 100%.
There are no pigs on Erdan Island. Since the discovery location is located at the mouth of the Jiulong River, the pig body should be drifted from mainland China according to the geographical location. At present, there are 11 cases of positive detection of African swine fever virus nucleic acid in Haipeng pigs (9 cases in Jinmen County and 2 cases in Lianjiang County).
According to the Strain Center, the Jinmen County Animal and Plant Epidemic Prevention Institute received a notice from the ninth shore patrol team of the Golden Horse Department on the 14th, and found dead pigs on the bank of Erdan Island in Liyu Township. The institute will immediately join the ninth shore patrol team of the Golden Horse Department.
I rushed to the scene to understand, after collecting the relevant samples, the dead pigs were burned and buried on the spot, and the samples were sent to the animal husbandry for inspection. The related samples were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and the results of the detection of African swine fever virus nucleic acid were positive. The gene fragment sequence was 100% similar to the gene fragment of the Chinese swine fever virus strain in mainland China.
The strain center added that according to the return of the Jinmen County Animal and Plant Epidemic Prevention Institute, there was no abnormal death in the pigs in the county. The veterinarians of the public offices continued to pay close attention to the dynamics of the farms within the jurisdiction.
In response to this case, the Jinmen County Government has implemented disinfection measures for the personnel, vehicles and equipment that come into contact with the dead pigs. There are no pigs on the second biliary island, and no pig farms are found within a radius of 5 km around the site. Safety, the Jinmen County Government has conducted a comprehensive visit to 8 pig farms in the island of Liyu Township. No abnormalities have been found. The pig farm visits and biosafety counselling will continue to be strengthened to prevent the occurrence and spread of the epidemic.
While the number of pigs retrieved from the beaches of these Taiwanese held islands remains small, the number of infected pigs dumped into Mainland rivers and streams is likely much greater.
The ocean is vast, currents may carry many carcasses away from shore, some may land and decompose unnoticed on uninhabited beaches, while others may end up eaten by predators.Additionally, many carcasses that have been recovered may have been too badly decomposed to allow for detection of the virus.
Despite the optimistic reporting by China's MOA - which admits just over 1.13 million pigs lost - many experts and organizations have come up with their own estimates of China's ASF losses.
- The FAO's Food Outlook Report - estimated China's losses closer to 20%; roughly 80 to 100 million pigs.
- A Rabobank Research report released in April estimated that between 150-200 million Chinese pigs have already been lost to ASF, and that China's pig production will drop 30% in 2019.
- Other estimates (see ASF China: Global agribusiness suffers; estimates vary) propose even greater losses.
China: Update: Fall Armyworm Now in 15 of China’s ProvincesWhile the full size and scope of China's ASF epizootic remains frustratingly undefined - a serious shortfall in food production in China could have serious ramifications, both regionally, and internationally.
Stay tuned.