#14,271
As this morning's NHC forecast map above shows, the position of Hurricane Dorian 5 days from now could be anywhere within a circle nearly 500 miles wide; ranging from Key West to Apalachicola to Southeastern Georgia.
This is the dilemma facing Florida's residents, and its Emergency Response teams. While Florida's Southeast coast appears to be the most likely target in this morning's forecast, nearly the entire state is in play.Wherever Dorian makes landfall, the forecast is for a major slowdown in forward speed 4 or 5 days from now, which means a prolonged pounding for potentially millions of Floridians and a strong likelihood of inland flooding.
Even though I live north of Tampa, local stores are already selling out of water, batteries, and other hurricane supplies. I'm seeing small lines at gasoline stations, my local home improvement store was doing brisk business yesterday, and I'm sure the scramble for supplies in South Florida is even more frantic.
A great deal of uncertainty remains - including a precious few models that turn the storm away from the coast or cross over into the Gulf of Mexico - but the bulk of the computer guidance is focused on South Florida.
Wherever landfall occurs, Dorian is expected to be a very powerful, slow moving hurricane, and life threatening conditions are likely across a wide area. This morning's key messages from the National Hurricane Center reads:
The slowdown in forward motion puts landfall still 4 days out, and a lot can change over the next 96 hours. Dorian could be stronger or weaker than currently forecast, it could move north or south of its current track, and its forward speed could change as well.
Beyond preparing for Dorian's arrival, you should check in often with the National Hurricane Center (major updates at 5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm), and follow Floridadisaster.org on Twitter.
While it's Florida under the gun this week, Hurricane season is just starting to ramp up. If you live anywhere in the islands, or along the Gulf or Atlantic coast, now is the time to prepare in case Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, or Humberto decide to pay a visit over the next couple of months.
