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Tropical Storm Dorian has lost a little of its punch overnight, and so the hurricane threat to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic 48 hours from now appears lessened, but not eliminated.
The 5am NHC forecast continues to show Dorian maintaining tropical storm strength as it enters the Southern Bahamas and moves towards Florida over labor day weekend.
The caveat to all of this is the biggest improvements in hurricane forecasting have come in refining track guidance, while predicting future intensity changes remains a major challenge (see NOAA: 2018 Hurricane Michael Upgraded To CAT 5).Some of this morning's models hint at a stronger storm 4 or 5 days from now, while others suggest the system may be weakened by its passage over the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Although the hurricane threat to Florida this weekend now still appears to be modest, the National Hurricane Center is urging residents in the path of this system to monitor its progress and make sure their hurricane plans are in place.
September is National Preparedness Month - and as I do every year - I'll be posting new, and updated, blogs on how you, your family, and your community can become better prepared to deal with a disaster.
As preview, and since disasters don't wait, a few recent hurricane preparedness blogs may help to get you started:
CDC EPIC: Hurricane Preparedness Webinar
Preparedness: Some Emergency Power Solutions
National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 3 - Assemble Your Supplies
National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 1 - Determine Your Risk
