Saturday, December 14, 2019

CDC: Preliminary Flu Season Burden Estimates

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Photo Credit PHIL (Public Health Image Library)



#14,577

While it is still early days, and it is too soon to tell how this year's flu will compare to the past couple of unusually rough seasons (see 2018's CDC: More Than 900,000 Hospitalizations & 80,000 Deaths In Last Winter's Flu Season), the CDC has released an early in-season snapshot of this year's estimated burden from influenza.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm?deliveryName=USCDC_7_3-DM15286


If any other infectious disease had infected more than 3 million Americans - and killed more than 1300 - over the past couple of months, the nation would be in an uproar. Particularly since these numbers could easily increase 10 fold in the next couple of months. 
But since its seasonal flu, it barely elicits a yawn.
In an average year, influenza kills roughly as many Americans as does gun violence, or car accidents. In a bad year - such as we saw in 2017-2018, flu can kill as many as both of those combined.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/burden.htm

The CDC has an `expected range' of seasonal influenza hospitalizations and deaths (see chart above), but as we learn more about the indirect effects of flu on cardiac conditions, and other chronic diseases, this range may need to be increased.

http://www.nfid.org/idinfo/influenza/cta-dangers-of-influenza-in-adults-with-chronic-health-c.pdf

Increasingly influenza and other respiratory infections have been linked to a significant seasonal increase in heart attacks and strokes.
https://www.ices.on.ca/~/media/Images/News_releases/2018/KwongFluHeartAttack.ashx?la=en-CA
Despite some less-than-stellar influenza Vaccine Efficiency (VE) numbers - particularly among those in the highest risk groups (65+) - we've seen evidence that vaccination does reduce complications like heart attacks and strokes.
While the flu vaccine isn't an ironclad guarantee of avoiding infection, most years it provides moderately good protection against circulating influenza viruses.  And for those who are vaccinated - but still get the flu - they are less likely to have a severe bout.

This from the CDC:

Flu Vaccine Reduces Serious Flu Outcomes

Flu vaccination has been shown to reduce flu illnesses and more serious flu outcomes that can result in hospitalization or even death in older people. For example, a 2017 study showed that flu vaccination reduced deaths, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, ICU length of stay, and overall duration of hospitalization among hospitalized flu patients; with the greatest benefits being observed among people 65 years of age and older.

I view getting a yearly flu shot like always wearing a seat belt in an automobile. It doesn't guarantee a good outcome in a wreck, but it sure increases your odds of walking away.

And that, to me, is an extra bit of insurance worth having.