#14,780
Four days ago, in HKU Estimates 44,000 Infected With Novel Coronavirus In Wuhan Alone, we looked a press conference held by Dean of Hong Kong University Medical School - Professor Gabriel Leung - where he estimated the actual number of cases to be 44,000 in Wuhan City alone.
Today The Lancet has published a paper by Gabriel M. Leung et al. that further estimates the number of coronavirus cases both in and outside of Wuhan City, and looks it the virus's potential for spreading on a global scale.The full paper is available (both HTML & PDF) at the link below. I've only posted a link and a brief snippet from the abstract.
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
Prof Joseph T Wu, PhD * Kathy Leung, PhD * Prof Gabriel M Leung, MD
Published:January 31, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9
Summary
Background
Since Dec 31, 2019, the Chinese city of Wuhan has reported an outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Cases have been exported to other Chinese cities, as well as internationally, threatening to trigger a global outbreak. Here, we provide an estimate of the size of the epidemic in Wuhan on the basis of the number of cases exported from Wuhan to cities outside mainland China and forecast the extent of the domestic and global public health risks of epidemics, accounting for social and non-pharmaceutical prevention interventions.
(SNIP)
Findings
In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively.
If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.
Interpretation
Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately.
Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.
FundingHealth and Medical Research Fund (Hong Kong, China).
