Monday, February 17, 2020

Hong Kong's Toilet Paper Heist


Not Legal Currency











#14,885

There's a common joke among survivalists -  that after the apocalypse/collapse/ect. -  toilet paper will be the new currency.  In Hong Kong, some people are apparently taking that seriously.
Some recent shortages have produced runs on `essentials', including toilet paper.  And now - people who might buy one pack normally - are loading up their shopping carts, which only makes the problem worse.  
In a bold if not necessarily bright escalation, an armed gang in Hong Kong this weekend went for a big score.
Two arrested after armed gang makes run for toilet rolls in HK$1,700 heist as coronavirus panic shows no signs of easing
  • Masked men struck outside Wellcome store in Mong Kok around 6am, escaping with about 50 packets holding 600 rolls
  • Barrister says case is serious and toilet paper in current circumstances can be considered valuable
While ludicrous on its face, it is a reminder that the time to prep, or to stock up, is always before an emergency.  Our JIT (Just In Time) inventory system is geared to a steady and predictable demand.  When the demand for any product surges unpredictably, the supply side has trouble adjusting.

In 2014's NPM 2014: Be Disaster Aware, Take Action to Prepareone of the topics I covered was toilet paper. I wrote:
Coincidentally, today (Sept 1st) is also Disaster Prevention Day in Japan, which is the anniversary of the disastrous 1923 M7.9 quake that left Tokyo in ruins and killed – by some estimates – more than 140,000 residents. Since 1960, that date has been used to conduct some of the most impressive disaster drills on the planet.
This year, one of the things the Japanese government is asking its citizens to add to their emergency stockpile is toilet paper.
Seriously, although some of the reasons behind this campaign may be more economic than practical. Still, Japan saw a `toilet paper shortage’ after the Great 2011 Earthquake, and fears another natural disaster could see the supplies on the shelves bottom out (head down in shame, but moving on . . . ).
It isn’t such a crazy idea, since there are often shortages of `necessities’ following a disaster. And the use of `substitutes’ for toilet paper can clog sewer pipes and septic tanks, adding to the misery and health hazards following a disaster.

Those of us of a sufficiently advanced age may recall The Great Toilet Paper Panic of 1973. One that was caused - not by a disaster - but by an offhand remark by the King of Late Night television; Johnny Carson. 

I told the tale six years ago, but for those of you who missed it:

In December of 1973, the United States was suffering through the first of the OPEC oil shocks, and gas prices had tripled. Americans were understandably shaken by gas shortages and long lines at the pump.

Enter Wisconsin congressman Harold Froehlich who made the papers when he expressed concerns over a wood pulp shortage that could portend a paper shortage in 1974. He quote an unnamed GAO source as saying they’d recently had trouble acquiring a full allotment of toilet paper.

Picking up on this obscure news item, staff writers for Johnny Carson’s Tonight Show wrote a joke for his monologue, saying that the next shortage congress was worried about was of toilet paper.

It got a modest laugh.

The next morning, however, millions of Tonight Show fans ran out and cleaned the shelves of all of the available toilet paper. Some people bought shopping cart's full. By noon, there wasn't a roll to be had in most major cities.

The supplies were, err, wiped out, so to speak.

That night, Johnny Carson went on the air to explain, and apologize. There was no shortage, folks. It was all just a joke . . .

Only one problem: Now there was a shortage.
As soon as new supplies were delivered and put on the shelves, they were snapped up by worried customers who hadn’t seen a roll on the shelf for days. People were hoarding toilet paper out of fear, and so the shortage continued.
Even though the supply chain was unbroken, it took 3 weeks before normalcy returned. And all of this took place back when stores actually had stockrooms, and didn't rely on just-in-time inventory restocking.

The point being, things can get a little crazy during when people are spooked.

The reason for being always prepared is so you don't have to worry about these types of supply chain interruptions - or worse - contribute to them.