#15,138
New York City, with more than 15,500 confirmed COVID-19 cases, currently accounts for more than 25% of the nation's 55,000+ diagnosed coronavirus cases. Given that the real number of infections in NYC is likely several times higher than currently reported, the city may be only days away from seeing a `Lombardy-style' surge on hospital resources.
As the city prepares for this crisis, one of the things we are getting from New York City is a fairly detailed daily demographic breakdown of cases, and deaths, from the virus.
Although tends may change over time, a look at yesterday's report provides some valuable clues on who is at greatest risk from COVID-19 infection and death.
First in terms of overall infections, 56% of all cases are under the age of 50, and males make up 57% of cases. Queens and Brooklyn account for nearly 60% of all cases.
In terms of hospitalization, which indicates more severe infection, only about 18% of confirmed cases have become sick enough to require in-hospital care. That number could increase, as for many people, there is a slow ramp-up of symptoms.
While only 19% of the total confirmed cases are aged 65 or older, they comprise nearly 40% of those hospitalized. That said, 60% of all hospitalized cases are under the age of 65.One again, hospitalized males outnumber females by a considerable margin.
And finally, deaths - with are notoriously lagging indicators - NYC has reported 192 (.12%), and once again, they are skewed heavily towards males.
Just over half of fatal outcomes are over the age of 75, with roughly 25% are under the age of 65. To date, no deaths have been reported in anyone under the age of 18.
We'll need to watch these numbers carefully over the days and weeks ahead, as they will give us a better idea of what to expect in other cities across the nation.
While the current CFR is close to what you might expect in a high severity flu season (.12% of total or .66% of hospitalized cases), the average hospitalization-to-death time period is well over a week.
If we `froze' the number of cases we have today, and then compared it to the number of deaths 7 to 10 days from now, we've probably have a more accurate picture.This CFR may also change - as we've seen in Italy - as hospitals are overwhelmed, and staffed critical care beds become a scarce commodity.
The good news is, that while young people are not immune to the infection, we continue to see relatively few severe illness in those under the age of 18.
