#15,092
Although we can't say with certainty what the COVID-19 pandemic will look like in the United States, the UK, or in much of Europe 3 or 4 weeks from now, the epidemic's impact in Italy shows what can happen to a modern country if community spread isn't slowed.
Three weeks ago today, Italy had only 3 known cases. They now have over 17,000 confirmed cases - and thousands of others are likely infected - but not yet sick enough to seek medical attention.Hospitals there are overrun, and some are on the verge of collapse. There are reports of shortages of ventilators, staff, and even oxygen. The entire country has been in lockdown for nearly a week, and yet the numbers keep rising (see Italy MOH: Statement On Extension of `Exceptional Measures' To All Of Italy).
Of particular concern, the apparent CFR (case fatality rate) continues to rise, with 7.1% of confirmed cases nationwide having died. The CFR in Lombardy - the hardest hit region - is over 9%, while in the rest of the country it is 4.8%.These fatality rates are far higher than we've seen anyplace else in the world - and while they may be heavily skewed by their inability to include mild and moderate cases in the denominator - some of these deaths are likely due to the near collapse of their health delivery system.
What countries do now to slow community spread of the virus - even if their numbers are currently low - will determine how much they look like Italy a month from now.
Press conference at 6 pm on March 13th
17660 total cases, the currently positive people are 14955, 1266 died and 1439 recovered.
Among the 14955 positives:
- 6201 are in home isolation
- 7426 hospitalized with symptoms
Read the tables:
- 1328 in intensive care
Consult the map:
Look:
Go to:
