#15,017
Since I don't have a crystal ball, I can't tell you how bad the COVID-19 pandemic will become, how long it will last, or where its greatest impacts will be felt. Right now, it is looking to be more severe than the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, but how much more is impossible to say.
Whether this is another 1957-style pandemic, or something more akin to 1918, will take some time to determine. Hopefully this remains on the lower end of the scale.But even if this proves to be a trial run for something `bigger' down the road, our flat footed global response to date is less than reassuring. With a few notable exceptions from Asia, nearly all local responses have been reactive, and almost always weeks too late.
Not that any of that has been unexpected. Over the past 15 years we've looked at dozens of reports and analyses on our lack of readiness.
A conclusion not unlike that reached in 2015 by a World Bank Poll: Majority Believe World Is Not Ready For A Pandemic, and by a 2011 WHO Panel: World Ill-Prepared To Deal With A Pandemic.
In 2015, we looked at an 84-page Bipartisan Report of The Blue Ribbon Study Panel On Biodefense that looked at our nation’s vulnerability to the triple threat of a biological attack, an accidental release, or naturally occurring pandemic with a highly pathogenic biological agent.
I'm certain, regardless of how bad COVID-19 turns out to be, we'll muddle through somehow. We'll do the best we can with what we've got, and hopefully we'll mitigate the worst effects.
Admittedly, there was an admirable international push for pandemic preparedness at all levels (public, private, community and individual) between 2006 and 2008 - but much of the momentum was lost after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic proved less severe than first feared.Back in 2017, in World Bank: World Ill-Prepared For A Pandemic, we looked at a 131-page working paper from The World Bank, that warned that far too many nations have let pandemic preparedness slide, and that the world remains unprepared to face even a moderately severe pandemic.
A conclusion not unlike that reached in 2015 by a World Bank Poll: Majority Believe World Is Not Ready For A Pandemic, and by a 2011 WHO Panel: World Ill-Prepared To Deal With A Pandemic.
In 2015, we looked at an 84-page Bipartisan Report of The Blue Ribbon Study Panel On Biodefense that looked at our nation’s vulnerability to the triple threat of a biological attack, an accidental release, or naturally occurring pandemic with a highly pathogenic biological agent.
Their conclusion? We weren't anywhere near ready.Just last August, in WHO: Survey Of Pandemic Preparedness In Member States, we saw the dismal results of a two-year survey of global pandemic preparedness. Sadly, only just over half (n=104, or 54%) of member states responded. And of those, just 92 stated they had a national pandemic plan. Nearly half (48%) of those plans were created prior to the 2009 pandemic, and have not been updated since.
It gets worse, as only 40% of the responding countries have tested their pandemic preparedness plans - through simulated exercises - in the past 5 years.
As we've discussed before, having a plan is a good start, but it is far from making a nation prepared. Plans make assumptions, both about the severity or impact of a pandemic, and their country's ability to respond. If the assumptions are off, the plan will surely fail under the pressure of a real event.
More than half of the countries reporting that they have a plan have not made them publicly available. We were told however, that pandemic planning was a high priority for many nations, and that `Globally, 91 of 104 (88%) countries intend to develop or update an existing pandemic influenza preparedness plan within the next one to two years.'
More than half of the countries reporting that they have a plan have not made them publicly available. We were told however, that pandemic planning was a high priority for many nations, and that `Globally, 91 of 104 (88%) countries intend to develop or update an existing pandemic influenza preparedness plan within the next one to two years.'
For too many years, and in too many countries, pandemic preparedness has been postponed because preparedness for a potential problem is a `hard sell' when there are sexier ways to spend tax money, and those in charge assumed it would never happen on `their watch'.The WHO: Survey stated - that even among high and upper-middle income nations (United States, Canada, UK, Western Europe, etc.) - pandemic planning was `far from optimal' - which becomes even more sobering when you realize these grades are based on self-reporting.
Even governments and agencies that I believe wanted to prepare have been hamstrung by politics, a fragile economy, and a steady stream of more immediate problems.But like the naive boat owner who continually postpones critical maintenance in favor of `just one more day' on the water, bad outcomes are all but inevitable. Davy Jones's locker is full of examples.
I'm certain, regardless of how bad COVID-19 turns out to be, we'll muddle through somehow. We'll do the best we can with what we've got, and hopefully we'll mitigate the worst effects.
But whether we openly admit it or not, we'll also know we could have suffered fewer human and economic losses had we gone into this better prepared.
The question is, once the dust has settled from COVID-19, will we all go back to sleep? Or will we immediately begin seriously preparing for the next pandemic?
Because like it or not, this won't be our last global health crisis. And we may have even less time to prepare than we've had this time.
Because like it or not, this won't be our last global health crisis. And we may have even less time to prepare than we've had this time.
