#15,163
Italy's COVID-19 pandemic wave appears to have peaked about 10 days ago, with just over 6,550 new COVID-19 cases in a 24 hour period - and while the daily numbers remain high - the past few days they've been averaging about 30% below their peak.
All of this is important because it demonstrates that the epi curve can be successfully `flattened' using aggressive social distancing.As Italy is likely to be the first western nation to get past the apex of their first wave, we'll be watching closely in the weeks ahead to see what happens when they try to relax some of their social distancing measures and attempt to restart their economy.
Today's numbers - 4,782 new cases and 729 deaths - bring Italy's confirmed totals to 110,574 cases and 13,155 deaths, although both numbers are believed to be significant undercounts. Uncounted - likely mild or moderate cases - make it almost impossible to evaluate the apparent CFR (case fatality rate), which when based on official numbers is astronomically high.
In Lombardy, where 7,593 of 44,773 cases have died, the preliminary CFR is very nearly 17%, while across all of Italy, the CFR is 11.9%. Both numbers are several times higher than anything we've seen reported in the world.While it is unlikely the true CFR will come anywhere near these values, Italy's large number of deaths are a genuine concern, and we'll be anxious to see a post-pandemic-wave analysis of exactly what transpired.
Press conference at 6 pm on April 1st
110,574 total cases, currently positive people are 80,572, 13,155 dead and 16,847 healed.
Among the 80,572 positives:Read the tables Consult the map
- 48.134 are in home isolation
- 28,403 hospitalized with symptoms
- 4,035 in intensive care
