Mid-April Initial Forecast
#15,262
We are now a month into the CDC's National and State COVID-19 forecasting, and as more models are added to the fold, and additional data is gathered and input, the projected numbers continue to rise.
In the initial April 13th forecast, it was expected that the number of COVID-19 deaths could be as low as 60,000 by today. Instead, we are just shy of 87,000, and many experts believe this to be a significant undercount.Two weeks ago, in in CDC: COVID-19 - Updated Forecasts (May 1st), we looked at revised forecasts - which added 5 new models to the data set- that predicted somewhere around 90,000 deaths (ensemble average) by June 1st.
We will undoubtedly surpass that number this weekend, and so the latest models - which forecast out to June 15th - have been adjusted upwards.These models are based on assumptions about the level and effectiveness of social distancing, the timing of the re-opening of the economy, and many other factors that can change abruptly. As more states open, these models will need to be refined to reflect the new reality.
COVID-19 Forecasts
Updated May 14, 2020
Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts
- This week’s national-level forecasting includes 12 individual forecasts, and all indicate an increase in deaths in the coming weeks. Predicted rates of increase differ among the forecasts, depending on assumptions about the strength and coverage of social distancing behaviors.
- The National Ensemble Forecast suggests that the number of cumulative reported deaths are likely to exceed 100,000 by June 1st.
- State-level ensemble forecasts indicate that states with low numbers of deaths reported to date are not likely to see a rapid rise in the coming weeks, while states with high numbers of deaths reported to date are likely to see substantial increases.
National Forecast
- These forecasts show cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths since February and forecasted deaths for the next four weeks in the United States.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions. See model descriptions below for details.
State Forecasts
State-level forecasts show observed and forecasted state-level cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the US.
Forecasts fall into one of three categories
- The LANL and UMass-MB forecasts do not explicitly model the effects of individual social distancing measures but assume that implemented interventions will continue, resulting in decreased growth.
- The Geneva, Georgia Tech, MIT, MOBS, and UT forecasts assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected time period.
- The Columbia, IHME, UChicago, and YYG forecasts make different assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future.
Download state forecasts pdf icon[12 pages]Download forecast data excel icon[1 sheet]
Why Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in the US is Critical
CDC is responding to a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that is spreading from person to person. The federal government is working closely with state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments, and other public health partners, to respond to this situation. Forecasts of deaths will help inform public health decision-making by projecting the likely impact in coming weeks.
What the Forecasts Aim to Predict
Forecasts based on statistical or mathematical models aim to predict changes in national- and state-level cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths for the next four weeks.
Forecasting teams predict numbers of deaths using different types of data (e.g., COVID-19 data, demographic data, mobility data), methods (see below), and estimates of the impacts of interventions (e.g. social distancing, use of face coverings).
Working to Bring Together Forecasts for COVID-19 Deaths in the US
CDC works with partners to bring together weekly forecasts for COVID-19 deaths in one place. These forecasts have been developed independently and shared publicly. It is important to bring these forecasts together to help understand how they compare with each other and how much uncertainty there is about what may happen in the upcoming four weeks.
