Mid-April Initial Forecast
#15,279
Five weeks ago, when there were fewer than 25,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States, forecast models suggested we might top out at between 60,000 and 70,000 deaths by the end of summer.
But that optimistic assessment was based on a very small number of models, which all assumed we'd be maintaining a strict, nationwide, lockdown.Conditions - and assumptions - change over time, and today we nearing 100,000 deaths. While the rate of deaths appears to be dropping, there is much uncertainty over what will happen as more and more states open up their economies, and reduce restrictions.
The CDC has released their latest weekly forecast update, which now calls for in excess of 110,000 deaths by June 13th. How much more will depend on many factors, but hinges primarily on society's social distancing and infection control practices going forward.
COVID-19 Forecasts
Updated May 21, 2020
Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts
This week’s national-level forecasting includes 16 individual forecasts, and all indicate that additional COVID-19 deaths will occur in the coming weeks. Predicted rates of increase differ among the forecasts, depending on assumptions about the strength and coverage of social distancing behaviors.
The national ensemble forecast suggests that the rate of increase in cumulative deaths is likely to slow but still exceed 110,000 by June 13.
State-level ensemble forecasts indicate that states with low numbers of deaths reported to date are not likely to see a rapid rise in the coming weeks, while states with high numbers of deaths reported to date are likely to see increases at varying rates.
National Forecast
These forecasts show cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths since February and forecasted deaths for the next four weeks in the United States.
Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions. See model descriptions below for details.
State Forecasts
State-level forecasts show observed and forecasted state-level cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the US. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each state.
Forecasts fall into one of three categories
- The Auquan, CAN, ERDC, ISU, LANL and UMass-MB forecasts do not explicitly model the effects of individual social distancing measures but assume that implemented interventions will continue, resulting in decreased growth.
- The Geneva, GA_Tech, MIT, MOBS, UCLA, and UT forecasts assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected time period.
- The Columbia, IHME, JHU, NotreDame, UChicago, and YYG forecasts make different assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future.
Why Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in the US is Critical
CDC is responding to a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that is spreading from person to person. The federal government is working closely with state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments, and other public health partners, to respond to this situation. Forecasts of deaths will help inform public health decision-making by projecting the likely impact in coming weeks.
What the Forecasts Aim to Predict
Forecasts based on statistical or mathematical models aim to predict changes in national- and state-level cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths for the next four weeks. Forecasting teams predict numbers of deaths using different types of data (e.g., COVID-19 data, demographic data, mobility data), methods (see below), and estimates of the impacts of interventions (e.g. social distancing, use of face coverings).
Working to Bring Together Forecasts for COVID-19 Deaths in the US(Continue . . . )
CDC works with partners to bring together weekly forecasts for COVID-19 deaths in one place. These forecasts have been developed independently and shared publicly. It is important to bring these forecasts together to help understand how they compare with each other and how much uncertainty there is about what may happen in the upcoming four weeks.
