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Each May NOAA releases a pre-season hurricane season outlook, one which attempts to estimate the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes that the Atlantic is likely to spin up over the next 6 months.
While these forecasts are not writ in stone, and they can't tell us how many will be landfalling hurricanes (or where), they can give us some idea of what kind of a season lies ahead.Over the past 60 days we've seen a variety of early season forecast models released by other forecasters at Colorado State University, Pennsylvania State University ESSC, the Weather Channel, and the experts at University College London Tropical Storm Risk center.
Nearly every one published is calling for an above average Atlantic Hurricane season.Today, at 11am, NOAA released their first seasonal outlook (which will be updated later in the summer), and they too are calling for an above average hurricane season. While not unexpected, this isn't exactly what any of us in hurricane country wanted to hear.
Busy Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2020
Multiple climate factors indicate above-normal activity is most likely
May 21, 2020An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
“As Americans focus their attention on a safe and healthy reopening of our country, it remains critically important that we also remember to make the necessary preparations for the upcoming hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Just as in years past, NOAA experts will stay ahead of developing hurricanes and tropical storms and provide the forecasts and warnings we depend on to stay safe.”
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As we discussed last Saturday, in Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different', our concurrent COVID-19 pandemic, and supply chain issues, will only further complicate preparation, and evacuation.
This is not the year you want to find yourself standing in a long line at the grocery or hardware store, hoping to buy food, supplies, or plywood to prepare for an imminent hurricane. Not only is it risky because of the virus, stores are already badly stressed by supply chain issues, and stocks are low.To help you prepare, below is a list of this month's hurricane preparedness blogs:
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 7 - Complete A Written Plan
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 - Help Your Neighbors
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 5 - Strengthen Your Home
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 4 - Get An Insurance Check-up
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 3 - Assemble Disaster Supplies
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 2 - Develop An Evacuation Plan
National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 1 - Determine Your Risk
Hurricane Preparedness Week 2020
Your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
