CDC Updated (June 12th) COVID-19 Cumulative Deaths Forecasts

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For the 8th week running - albeit posted a day later than usual - the CDC has released an updated COVID-19 forecast of deaths in the United States over the next 4 weeks, this time incorporating 17 models in their analysis (down from 20 last week).

While forecast models are useful, they are based on a wide range of methods and assumptions, and are most useful for spotting trends. 

Two months ago - when there were fewer than 25,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States - initial models suggested we might top out at between 60,000 and 70,000 deaths by the end of summer.  Today, we've more than 116,000 deaths and counting.

Conditions - and assumptions - change over time.

The varying degrees of social distancing practiced by the public, the impact of the nationwide protests and vigils for George Floyd, the reopening of restaurants, beaches, and casinos, and the increasing number of people rejoining the workforce are all factors that can change the course of the COVID-19 outbreak.

This week's summary provides a wide range of model estimates, with one outlier (Auquan Data Science) forecasting over 175,000 deaths by July 4th while the remaining models are clustered in a lower and narrower range (124,000 -140,000).

As far as where we'll actually be on July 4th . . . stay tuned.

COVID-19 Forecasts: Cumulative Deaths
Updated June 12, 2020

Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts

• This week CDC received 17 individual national forecasts.
• This week’s national ensemble forecast suggests that there will likely be between 124,000 and 140,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by July 4th.
• The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks in Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, North Carolina, Utah, and Vermont will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks. For other states, the number of new deaths is expected to be similar or decrease slightly compared to the previous four weeks.

National Forecast

• These forecasts show cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths since February and forecasted deaths for the next four weeks in the United States.
• Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details.

State Forecasts
State-level forecasts show observed and forecasted state-level cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the US. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each state.

Forecasts fall into one of two categories

• The Auquan, ERDC, Geneva, Imperial, ISU, LANL, MIT, MOBS, SWC, UA, UCLA, UMass-MB, and UT forecasts assume that existing control measures will remain in place during the prediction period.
• The Columbia, Covid19Sim, GT_CHHS, JHU, and YYG forecasts make different assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[12 pages]

Download forecast data excel icon[1 sheet]

Why Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in the US is Critical

CDC is responding to a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that is spreading from person to person. The federal government is working closely with state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments, and other public health partners, to respond to this situation. Forecasts of deaths will help inform public health decision-making by projecting the likely impact in coming weeks.

What the Forecasts Aim to Predict

Forecasts based on statistical or mathematical models aim to predict changes in national- and state-level cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths for the next four weeks.

Forecasting teams predict numbers of deaths using different types of data (e.g., COVID-19 data, demographic data, mobility data), methods (see below), and estimates of the impacts of interventions (e.g. social distancing, use of face coverings).

Working to Bring Together Forecasts for COVID-19 Deaths in the US

CDC works with partners to bring together weekly forecasts for COVID-19 deaths in one place. These forecasts have been developed independently and shared publicly. It is important to bring these forecasts together to help understand how they compare with each other and how much uncertainty there is about what may happen in the upcoming four weeks.

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